Week 16 matchups
Model projections from opponent-adjusted EPA ratings plus 1.5 points of home field, compared with the market. Edges are z-score differences between an offense and the defense it faces.
Week 16 · Thu 8:15 pm ETno line
Texans0-1 · Pwr −2.6
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Eagles1-0 · Pwr −0.4
PHI 61% modelproj 24–28
Ball security vs takeaways +2.4Success rate -2.1Prime Video
Week 16 · Fri 1:00 pm ETno line
Packers0-1 · Pwr −3.2
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Bears1-0 · Pwr +2.9
CHI 71% modelproj 22–29
Points per drive +3.0Third down +2.6Netflix
Week 16 · Fri 4:30 pm ETno line
Bills1-0 · Pwr +2.6
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Broncos0-0 · Pwr +0.0
BUF 53% modelproj 26–25
Deep passing +2.1Early downs +1.6Netflix
Week 16 · Fri 8:15 pm ETno line
Rams0-1 · Pwr −5.2
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Seahawks1-0 · Pwr +1.5
SEA 73% modelproj 18–27
Ball security vs takeaways -2.9Points per drive -2.7FOX
Week 16 · Sun Dec 27 · TBDno line
Bengals1-0 · Pwr +1.0
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Colts0-1 · Pwr −5.5
CIN 64% modelproj 25–20
Ball security vs takeaways -3.2Rushing attack +2.6
Week 16 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Browns0-1 · Pwr −6.5
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Ravens1-0 · Pwr +5.5
BAL 84% modelproj 17–30
Pass protection vs pressure -3.4Early downs +3.1CBS
Week 16 · Sun Dec 27 · TBDno line
Buccaneers0-1 · Pwr −1.0
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Falcons0-1 · Pwr −1.3
ATL 54% modelproj 18–19
Passing attack -2.7Ball security vs takeaways -2.3
Week 16 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Chargers0-1 · Pwr −3.9
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Dolphins0-1 · Pwr −2.7
MIA 58% modelproj 20–23
Deep passing +2.7Red zone -1.9FOX
Week 16 · Sun Dec 27 · TBDno line
Panthers0-1 · Pwr −2.9
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Steelers1-0 · Pwr +1.3
PIT 66% modelproj 19–25
Deep passing +2.5Passing attack -1.8
Week 16 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Patriots0-1 · Pwr −1.5
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Jets1-0 · Pwr +3.4
NYJ 68% modelproj 19–26
Explosive plays -3.0Points per drive -2.4CBS
Week 16 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Cardinals1-0 · Pwr +3.9
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Saints0-1 · Pwr +0.6
ARI 55% modelproj 24–22
Ball security vs takeaways +1.7Ball security vs takeaways -1.7FOX
Week 16 · Sun Dec 27 · TBDno line
Commanders0-1 · Pwr +0.4
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Vikings1-0 · Pwr +3.2
MIN 62% modelproj 21–25
Early downs -2.9Success rate -2.5
Week 16 · Sun 4:05 pm ETno line
Titans0-1 · Pwr −3.4
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Raiders1-0 · Pwr +2.7
LV 71% modelproj 17–25
Pass protection vs pressure +2.8Points per drive -2.3FOX
Week 16 · Sun 4:25 pm ETno line
49ers1-0 · Pwr +5.2
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Chiefs0-0 · Pwr +0.0
SF 61% modelproj 25–21
Success rate +1.8Pass protection vs pressure -1.6CBS
Week 16 · Sun 8:20 pm ETno line
Jaguars1-0 · Pwr +6.5
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Cowboys0-1 · Pwr −1.2
JAX 68% modelproj 31–25
Success rate +4.3Passing attack +3.8NBC
Week 16 · Mon 8:15 pm ETno line
Giants1-0 · Pwr +1.2
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Lions1-0 · Pwr −0.6
NYG 51% modelproj 27–27
Third down +3.1Success rate +2.0ESPN
Model vs market
The model is deliberately simple: adjusted EPA ratings scaled to points. Treat edges as a conversation starter, not a betting system.
| Game | Score | Home spread | Model margin | Spread edge | O/U | Model total | Total edge | Home WP (model) | Home WP (market) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU @ PHI | – | +3.7 | – | – | 51.6 | – | 61% | – | |
| GB @ CHI | – | +7.6 | – | – | 50.9 | – | 71% | – | |
| BUF @ DEN | – | −1.1 | – | – | 51.1 | – | 47% | – | |
| LA @ SEA | – | +8.3 | – | – | 44.9 | – | 73% | – | |
| CIN @ IND | – | −5.0 | – | – | 44.9 | – | 36% | – | |
| CLE @ BAL | – | +13.5 | – | – | 47.2 | – | 84% | – | |
| TB @ ATL | – | +1.2 | – | – | 37.5 | – | 54% | – | |
| LAC @ MIA | – | +2.7 | – | – | 42.4 | – | 58% | – | |
| CAR @ PIT | – | +5.7 | – | – | 44.6 | – | 66% | – | |
| NE @ NYJ | – | +6.4 | – | – | 45.1 | – | 68% | – | |
| ARI @ NO | – | −1.8 | – | – | 45.7 | – | 45% | – | |
| WAS @ MIN | – | +4.3 | – | – | 45.8 | – | 62% | – | |
| TEN @ LV | – | +7.6 | – | – | 42.5 | – | 71% | – | |
| SF @ KC | – | −3.7 | – | – | 46.2 | – | 39% | – | |
| JAX @ DAL | – | −6.2 | – | – | 55.4 | – | 32% | – | |
| NYG @ DET | – | −0.2 | – | – | 54.0 | – | 49% | – |