Week 16 · Sunday, Dec 27 · 4:25 pm ET · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
TBD referee · 10 rest days (SF) / 6 (KC)
Model
Projected SF 21.5 – KC 24.0
margin +2.5 · total 45.5
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| SF | KC | |
|---|---|---|
| +5.2 4th | Power rating | 2nd +6.2 |
| +2.3 7th | Offense rating | 11th +1.4 |
| +2.9 5th | Defense rating | 1st +4.8 |
| +0.190 7th | Offense EPA/play | 11th +0.118 |
| −0.226 5th | Defense EPA/play allowed | 1st −0.378 |
| 56.9% 3rd | Offense success rate | 22nd 40.9% |
| 43.3% 17th | Defense success rate allowed | 4th 36.0% |
| +0.227 11th | Pass EPA/dropback | 20th −0.014 |
| −0.270 4th | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 2nd −0.442 |
| +0.142 3rd | Rush EPA/carry | 1st +0.259 |
| −0.171 9th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 7th −0.228 |
| 7.7% 19th | Explosive play rate | 15th 9.1% |
| 6.7% 12th | Explosive rate allowed | 3rd 2.0% |
| 58.3% 4th | 3rd-down conversion | 7th 56.3% |
| 22.2% 7th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 2nd 16.7% |
| 66.7% 15th | Red-zone TD rate | 19th 60.0% |
| 33.3% 4th | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 9th 50.0% |
| 5.6% 3rd | Pressure rate allowed | 16th 15.2% |
| 27.6% 3rd | Pressure rate | 8th 21.2% |
| 11.1% 16th | Turnover rate | 14th 8.3% |
| 20.0% 5th | Takeaway rate | 10th 16.7% |
| 27.0 13th | Points per game | 8th 31.0 |
| 7.0 1st | Points allowed per game | 2nd 10.0 |
| +5.1% – | Pass rate over expected | – +0.4% |
| 32.7 25th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 8th 27.6 |
| +0.190 – | Off epa last3 | – +0.118 |
| −0.226 – | Def epa last3 | – −0.378 |
| −0.7 25th | Special teams EPA | 13th +3.3 |
SF offense vs KC defense
Offense percentiles for SF against the matching defensive percentiles for KC. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
SFKC D
KC offense vs SF defense
Offense percentiles for KC against the matching defensive percentiles for SF. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
KCSF D