Week 16 · Sunday, Dec 27 · 1:00 pm ET · M&T Bank Stadium
TBD referee · 7 rest days (CLE) / 7 (BAL)
Model
Projected CLE 18.4 – BAL 31.9
margin +13.5 · total 50.3
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| CLE | BAL | |
|---|---|---|
| −6.5 32nd | Power rating | 3rd +5.5 |
| −2.7 26th | Offense rating | 6th +2.6 |
| −3.8 30th | Defense rating | 6th +2.9 |
| −0.206 26th | Offense EPA/play | 6th +0.209 |
| +0.310 30th | Defense EPA/play allowed | 6th −0.225 |
| 43.1% 17th | Offense success rate | 12th 46.9% |
| 59.3% 32nd | Defense success rate allowed | 13th 42.6% |
| −0.257 28th | Pass EPA/dropback | 7th +0.316 |
| +0.731 32nd | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 3rd −0.410 |
| −0.119 21st | Rush EPA/carry | 6th +0.102 |
| −0.053 20th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 28th +0.116 |
| 7.8% 18th | Explosive play rate | 8th 10.9% |
| 16.7% 32nd | Explosive rate allowed | 29th 13.0% |
| 12.5% 32nd | 3rd-down conversion | 17th 37.5% |
| 55.6% 25th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 11th 30.0% |
| 0.0% 30th | Red-zone TD rate | 13th 75.0% |
| 100.0% 23rd | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 23rd 100.0% |
| 30.0% 31st | Pressure rate allowed | 8th 10.3% |
| 12.5% 22nd | Pressure rate | 4th 26.5% |
| 22.2% 30th | Turnover rate | 12th 7.7% |
| 0.0% 25th | Takeaway rate | 10th 16.7% |
| 10.0 28th | Points per game | 2nd 41.0 |
| 34.0 27th | Points allowed per game | 14th 23.0 |
| −9.7% – | Pass rate over expected | – −5.8% |
| 38.8 32nd | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 19th 30.8 |
| −0.206 – | Off epa last3 | – +0.209 |
| +0.310 – | Def epa last3 | – −0.225 |
| +6.1 2nd | Special teams EPA | 6th +4.8 |
CLE offense vs BAL defense
Offense percentiles for CLE against the matching defensive percentiles for BAL. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
CLEBAL D
BAL offense vs CLE defense
Offense percentiles for BAL against the matching defensive percentiles for CLE. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
BALCLE D