Week 16 · Friday, Dec 25 · 1:00 pm ET · Soldier Field
TBD referee · 5 rest days (GB) / 6 (CHI)
Model
Projected GB 23.2 – CHI 30.8
margin +7.6 · total 54.0
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| GB | CHI | |
|---|---|---|
| −3.2 26th | Power rating | 8th +2.9 |
| −2.4 25th | Offense rating | 2nd +4.5 |
| −0.8 21st | Defense rating | 24th −1.6 |
| −0.181 25th | Offense EPA/play | 2nd +0.361 |
| +0.071 21st | Defense EPA/play allowed | 24th +0.130 |
| 38.2% 27th | Offense success rate | 4th 53.3% |
| 38.7% 7th | Defense success rate allowed | 22nd 47.1% |
| −0.059 22nd | Pass EPA/dropback | 4th +0.551 |
| +0.233 23rd | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 24th +0.242 |
| −0.438 31st | Rush EPA/carry | 2nd +0.143 |
| −0.125 11th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 14th −0.106 |
| 13.2% 3rd | Explosive play rate | 5th 12.0% |
| 3.2% 4th | Explosive rate allowed | 27th 11.8% |
| 25.0% 23rd | 3rd-down conversion | 3rd 71.4% |
| 57.1% 27th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 21st 44.4% |
| 25.0% 29th | Red-zone TD rate | 1st 100.0% |
| 100.0% 23rd | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 23rd 100.0% |
| 32.6% 32nd | Pressure rate allowed | 5th 7.9% |
| 16.1% 13th | Pressure rate | 23rd 11.6% |
| 16.7% 21st | Turnover rate | 10th 7.1% |
| 7.7% 20th | Takeaway rate | 13th 15.4% |
| 22.0 20th | Points per game | 1st 59.0 |
| 39.0 30th | Points allowed per game | 29th 37.0 |
| −3.0% – | Pass rate over expected | – −1.7% |
| 19.3 1st | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 12th 28.6 |
| −0.181 – | Off epa last3 | – +0.361 |
| +0.071 – | Def epa last3 | – +0.130 |
| +3.5 12th | Special teams EPA | 1st +6.4 |
GB offense vs CHI defense
Offense percentiles for GB against the matching defensive percentiles for CHI. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
GBCHI D
CHI offense vs GB defense
Offense percentiles for CHI against the matching defensive percentiles for GB. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
CHIGB D