Week 16 · Sunday, Dec 27 · 1:00 pm ET · Caesars Superdome (dome)
TBD referee · 7 rest days (ARI) / 7 (NO)
Model
Projected ARI 25.2 – NO 23.5
margin −1.8 · total 48.7
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| ARI | NO | |
|---|---|---|
| +3.9 5th | Power rating | 15th +0.6 |
| +1.7 8th | Offense rating | 17th +0.2 |
| +2.2 9th | Defense rating | 14th +0.4 |
| +0.139 8th | Offense EPA/play | 17th +0.019 |
| −0.167 9th | Defense EPA/play allowed | 14th −0.027 |
| 48.6% 6th | Offense success rate | 15th 43.8% |
| 40.0% 9th | Defense success rate allowed | 20th 45.5% |
| +0.270 8th | Pass EPA/dropback | 17th +0.052 |
| −0.087 10th | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 14th +0.012 |
| −0.044 11th | Rush EPA/carry | 15th −0.075 |
| −0.360 4th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 19th −0.072 |
| 5.6% 24th | Explosive play rate | 16th 9.0% |
| 5.5% 8th | Explosive rate allowed | 22nd 10.4% |
| 46.2% 11th | 3rd-down conversion | 10th 47.1% |
| 25.0% 8th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 17th 38.5% |
| 40.0% 24th | Red-zone TD rate | 10th 80.0% |
| 66.7% 14th | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 20th 80.0% |
| 12.8% 12th | Pressure rate allowed | 14th 14.3% |
| 11.4% 24th | Pressure rate | 9th 19.5% |
| 0.0% 1st | Turnover rate | 29th 21.4% |
| 20.0% 5th | Takeaway rate | 24th 6.7% |
| 26.0 16th | Points per game | 11th 30.0 |
| 14.0 9th | Points allowed per game | 23rd 31.0 |
| −0.5% – | Pass rate over expected | – +4.1% |
| 30.5 17th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 2nd 21.6 |
| +0.139 – | Off epa last3 | – +0.019 |
| −0.167 – | Def epa last3 | – −0.027 |
| −3.9 30th | Special teams EPA | 29th −2.4 |
ARI offense vs NO defense
Offense percentiles for ARI against the matching defensive percentiles for NO. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
ARINO D
NO offense vs ARI defense
Offense percentiles for NO against the matching defensive percentiles for ARI. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
NOARI D