Week 16 · Sunday, Dec 27 · 1:00 pm ET · MetLife Stadium
TBD referee · 6 rest days (NE) / 7 (NYJ)
Model
Projected NE 20.9 – NYJ 27.3
margin +6.4 · total 48.2
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| NE | NYJ | |
|---|---|---|
| −1.5 22nd | Power rating | 6th +3.4 |
| −1.2 22nd | Offense rating | 10th +1.5 |
| −0.3 18th | Defense rating | 10th +1.8 |
| −0.092 22nd | Offense EPA/play | 10th +0.127 |
| +0.029 18th | Defense EPA/play allowed | 10th −0.141 |
| 40.9% 23rd | Offense success rate | 7th 48.4% |
| 38.8% 8th | Defense success rate allowed | 19th 44.0% |
| +0.127 15th | Pass EPA/dropback | 6th +0.338 |
| +0.196 21st | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 9th −0.152 |
| −0.451 32nd | Rush EPA/carry | 10th −0.038 |
| −0.195 8th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 16th −0.096 |
| 1.4% 31st | Explosive play rate | 8th 10.9% |
| 10.2% 21st | Explosive rate allowed | 5th 4.0% |
| 31.3% 21st | 3rd-down conversion | 28th 18.2% |
| 18.2% 4th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 13th 33.3% |
| 50.0% 20th | Red-zone TD rate | 15th 66.7% |
| 0.0% 1st | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 23rd 100.0% |
| 14.3% 14th | Pressure rate allowed | 1st 3.9% |
| 22.2% 6th | Pressure rate | 14th 15.4% |
| 33.3% 31st | Turnover rate | 1st 0.0% |
| 0.0% 25th | Takeaway rate | 25th 0.0% |
| 10.0 28th | Points per game | 18th 23.0 |
| 13.0 6th | Points allowed per game | 2nd 10.0 |
| −3.5% – | Pass rate over expected | – −8.9% |
| 31.9 24th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 28th 34.3 |
| −0.092 – | Off epa last3 | – +0.127 |
| +0.029 – | Def epa last3 | – −0.141 |
| +1.0 18th | Special teams EPA | 11th +3.5 |
NE offense vs NYJ defense
Offense percentiles for NE against the matching defensive percentiles for NYJ. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
NENYJ D
NYJ offense vs NE defense
Offense percentiles for NYJ against the matching defensive percentiles for NE. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
NYJNE D