Week 16 · Sunday, Dec 27 · 1:00 pm ET · Acrisure Stadium
TBD referee · 7 rest days (CAR) / 7 (PIT)
Model
Projected CAR 21.0 – PIT 26.7
margin +5.7 · total 47.7
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| CAR | PIT | |
|---|---|---|
| −2.9 25th | Power rating | 12th +1.3 |
| +1.6 9th | Offense rating | 30th −3.2 |
| −4.5 31st | Defense rating | 2nd +4.6 |
| +0.130 9th | Offense EPA/play | 30th −0.252 |
| +0.361 31st | Defense EPA/play allowed | 2nd −0.358 |
| 47.1% 11th | Offense success rate | 32nd 33.9% |
| 53.3% 29th | Defense success rate allowed | 5th 36.7% |
| +0.242 9th | Pass EPA/dropback | 27th −0.251 |
| +0.551 29th | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 1st −0.638 |
| −0.106 19th | Rush EPA/carry | 27th −0.252 |
| +0.143 31st | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 13th −0.113 |
| 11.8% 6th | Explosive play rate | 22nd 6.2% |
| 12.0% 28th | Explosive rate allowed | 20th 10.0% |
| 44.4% 12th | 3rd-down conversion | 23rd 25.0% |
| 71.4% 30th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 2nd 16.7% |
| 100.0% 1st | Red-zone TD rate | 20th 50.0% |
| 100.0% 23rd | Red-zone TD rate allowed | – – |
| 11.6% 10th | Pressure rate allowed | 13th 14.0% |
| 7.9% 28th | Pressure rate | 10th 19.2% |
| 15.4% 19th | Turnover rate | 10th 7.1% |
| 7.1% 22nd | Takeaway rate | 13th 15.4% |
| 37.0 4th | Points per game | 22nd 20.0 |
| 59.0 32nd | Points allowed per game | 6th 13.0 |
| +3.1% – | Pass rate over expected | – +11.2% |
| 24.7 4th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 6th 25.7 |
| +0.130 – | Off epa last3 | – −0.252 |
| +0.361 – | Def epa last3 | – −0.358 |
| −0.5 24th | Special teams EPA | 19th +0.8 |
CAR offense vs PIT defense
Offense percentiles for CAR against the matching defensive percentiles for PIT. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
CARPIT D
PIT offense vs CAR defense
Offense percentiles for PIT against the matching defensive percentiles for CAR. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
PITCAR D