Week 16 · Sunday, Dec 27 · 4:05 pm ET · Allegiant Stadium (dome)
TBD referee · 7 rest days (TEN) / 7 (LV)
Model
Projected TEN 19.0 – LV 26.6
margin +7.6 · total 45.6
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| TEN | LV | |
|---|---|---|
| −3.4 27th | Power rating | 9th +2.7 |
| −1.8 23rd | Offense rating | 20th −0.4 |
| −1.5 23rd | Defense rating | 4th +3.1 |
| −0.141 23rd | Offense EPA/play | 20th −0.029 |
| +0.127 23rd | Defense EPA/play allowed | 4th −0.242 |
| 44.0% 14th | Offense success rate | 18th 43.1% |
| 48.4% 26th | Defense success rate allowed | 3rd 34.6% |
| −0.152 24th | Pass EPA/dropback | 18th +0.027 |
| +0.338 27th | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 7th −0.183 |
| −0.096 17th | Rush EPA/carry | 16th −0.083 |
| −0.038 23rd | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 3rd −0.399 |
| 4.0% 28th | Explosive play rate | 19th 7.7% |
| 10.9% 24th | Explosive rate allowed | 23rd 10.9% |
| 33.3% 18th | 3rd-down conversion | 15th 41.7% |
| 18.2% 4th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 6th 20.0% |
| 100.0% 1st | Red-zone TD rate | 13th 75.0% |
| 66.7% 14th | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 4th 33.3% |
| 15.4% 19th | Pressure rate allowed | 4th 6.5% |
| 3.9% 32nd | Pressure rate | 5th 24.3% |
| 0.0% 1st | Turnover rate | 24th 18.2% |
| 0.0% 25th | Takeaway rate | 7th 18.2% |
| 10.0 28th | Points per game | 13th 27.0 |
| 23.0 14th | Points allowed per game | 6th 13.0 |
| +5.8% – | Pass rate over expected | – −5.6% |
| 27.3 7th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 31st 36.5 |
| −0.141 – | Off epa last3 | – −0.029 |
| +0.127 – | Def epa last3 | – −0.242 |
| −5.1 32nd | Special teams EPA | 5th +5.0 |
TEN offense vs LV defense
Offense percentiles for TEN against the matching defensive percentiles for LV. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
TENLV D
LV offense vs TEN defense
Offense percentiles for LV against the matching defensive percentiles for TEN. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
LVTEN D