Week 16 · Sunday, Dec 27 · 1:00 pm ET · Hard Rock Stadium
TBD referee · 10 rest days (LAC) / 7 (MIA)
Model
Projected LAC 21.4 – MIA 24.0
margin +2.7 · total 45.4
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| LAC | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| −3.9 28th | Power rating | 24th −2.7 |
| −2.2 24th | Offense rating | 29th −3.1 |
| −1.7 25th | Defense rating | 13th +0.4 |
| −0.167 24th | Offense EPA/play | 29th −0.242 |
| +0.139 25th | Defense EPA/play allowed | 13th −0.029 |
| 40.0% 24th | Offense success rate | 30th 34.6% |
| 48.6% 27th | Defense success rate allowed | 15th 43.1% |
| −0.087 23rd | Pass EPA/dropback | 26th −0.183 |
| +0.270 25th | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 15th +0.027 |
| −0.360 29th | Rush EPA/carry | 30th −0.399 |
| −0.044 22nd | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 17th −0.083 |
| 5.5% 25th | Explosive play rate | 10th 10.9% |
| 5.6% 9th | Explosive rate allowed | 13th 7.7% |
| 25.0% 23rd | 3rd-down conversion | 27th 20.0% |
| 46.2% 22nd | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 18th 41.7% |
| 66.7% 15th | Red-zone TD rate | 26th 33.3% |
| 40.0% 7th | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 18th 75.0% |
| 11.4% 9th | Pressure rate allowed | 28th 24.3% |
| 12.8% 21st | Pressure rate | 29th 6.5% |
| 20.0% 27th | Turnover rate | 24th 18.2% |
| 0.0% 25th | Takeaway rate | 7th 18.2% |
| 14.0 24th | Points per game | 25th 13.0 |
| 26.0 17th | Points allowed per game | 18th 27.0 |
| +0.3% – | Pass rate over expected | – −2.7% |
| 29.9 16th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 29th 34.4 |
| −0.167 – | Off epa last3 | – −0.242 |
| +0.139 – | Def epa last3 | – −0.029 |
| −4.3 31st | Special teams EPA | 27th −1.2 |
LAC offense vs MIA defense
Offense percentiles for LAC against the matching defensive percentiles for MIA. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
LACMIA D
MIA offense vs LAC defense
Offense percentiles for MIA against the matching defensive percentiles for LAC. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
MIALAC D