Week 16 · Thursday, Dec 24 · 8:15 pm ET · Lincoln Financial Field
TBD referee · 4 rest days (HOU) / 5 (PHI)
Model
Projected HOU 25.5 – PHI 29.2
margin +3.7 · total 54.7
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| HOU | PHI | |
|---|---|---|
| −2.6 23rd | Power rating | 17th −0.4 |
| +0.8 13th | Offense rating | 16th +0.3 |
| −3.4 29th | Defense rating | 19th −0.7 |
| +0.071 13th | Offense EPA/play | 16th +0.027 |
| +0.278 29th | Defense EPA/play allowed | 19th +0.059 |
| 48.1% 9th | Offense success rate | 31st 34.0% |
| 41.1% 12th | Defense success rate allowed | 14th 42.9% |
| +0.098 16th | Pass EPA/dropback | 13th +0.136 |
| +0.556 30th | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 19th +0.133 |
| +0.030 9th | Rush EPA/carry | 23rd −0.167 |
| −0.263 5th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 21st −0.047 |
| 8.9% 17th | Explosive play rate | 14th 9.4% |
| 14.3% 31st | Explosive rate allowed | 6th 4.3% |
| 43.8% 13th | 3rd-down conversion | 14th 42.9% |
| 33.3% 13th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 13th 33.3% |
| 80.0% 10th | Red-zone TD rate | 15th 66.7% |
| 33.3% 4th | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 23rd 100.0% |
| 21.4% 26th | Pressure rate allowed | 16th 15.2% |
| 9.1% 26th | Pressure rate | 31st 5.1% |
| 18.2% 24th | Turnover rate | 1st 0.0% |
| 0.0% 25th | Takeaway rate | 25th 0.0% |
| 31.0 8th | Points per game | 17th 24.0 |
| 36.0 28th | Points allowed per game | 12th 22.0 |
| −4.8% – | Pass rate over expected | – −5.5% |
| 31.1 21st | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 22nd 31.1 |
| +0.071 – | Off epa last3 | – +0.027 |
| +0.278 – | Def epa last3 | – +0.059 |
| +4.3 9th | Special teams EPA | 17th +1.1 |
HOU offense vs PHI defense
Offense percentiles for HOU against the matching defensive percentiles for PHI. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
HOUPHI D
PHI offense vs HOU defense
Offense percentiles for PHI against the matching defensive percentiles for HOU. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
PHIHOU D