Week 3 matchups
Model projections from opponent-adjusted EPA ratings plus 1.5 points of home field, compared with the market. Edges are z-score differences between an offense and the defense it faces.
Week 3 · Thu 8:15 pm ETno line
Falcons0-1 · Pwr −1.3
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Packers0-1 · Pwr −3.2
ATL 51% modelproj 19–18
Early downs -3.2Rushing attack -3.0Prime Video
Week 3 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Chargers0-1 · Pwr −3.9
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Bills1-0 · Pwr +2.6
BUF 72% modelproj 21–29
Deep passing +2.4Ball security vs takeaways +2.4FOX
Week 3 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Seahawks1-0 · Pwr +1.5
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Commanders0-1 · Pwr +0.4
WAS 51% modelproj 23–23
Explosive plays -2.9Success rate -2.4FOX
Week 3 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Bengals1-0 · Pwr +1.0
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Steelers1-0 · Pwr +1.3
PIT 55% modelproj 18–20
Passing attack -2.7Deep passing +2.7CBS
Week 3 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Titans0-1 · Pwr −3.4
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Giants1-0 · Pwr +1.2
NYG 67% modelproj 24–30
Explosive plays -3.4Success rate +2.7CBS
Week 3 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Chiefs0-0 · Pwr +0.0
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Dolphins0-1 · Pwr −2.7
KC 54% modelproj 22–21
Deep passing +2.4Rushing attack -1.8CBS
Week 3 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Patriots0-1 · Pwr −1.5
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Jaguars1-0 · Pwr +6.5
JAX 76% modelproj 19–28
Ball security vs takeaways -3.1Red zone -2.6CBS
Week 3 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Panthers0-1 · Pwr −2.9
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Browns0-1 · Pwr −6.5
CAR 56% modelproj 28–26
Explosive plays +3.0Early downs +2.6FOX
Week 3 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Jets1-0 · Pwr +3.4
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Lions1-0 · Pwr −0.6
NYJ 57% modelproj 24–22
Pass protection vs pressure +1.7Ball security vs takeaways +1.7FOX
Week 3 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Texans0-1 · Pwr −2.6
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Colts0-1 · Pwr −5.5
HOU 54% modelproj 26–24
Deep passing -3.1Explosive plays +2.7CBS
Week 3 · Sun 4:05 pm ETno line
Vikings1-0 · Pwr +3.2
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Buccaneers0-1 · Pwr −1.0
MIN 58% modelproj 23–21
Ball security vs takeaways -3.2Deep passing -2.6FOX
Week 3 · Sun 4:05 pm ETno line
Cardinals1-0 · Pwr +3.9
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49ers1-0 · Pwr +5.2
SF 58% modelproj 21–24
Red zone -1.9Pass protection vs pressure +1.9FOX
Week 3 · Sun 4:25 pm ETno line
Raiders1-0 · Pwr +2.7
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Saints0-1 · Pwr +0.6
LV 52% modelproj 22–21
Deep passing -1.7Rushing attack -1.7CBS
Week 3 · Sun 4:25 pm ETno line
Ravens1-0 · Pwr +5.5
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Cowboys0-1 · Pwr −1.2
BAL 65% modelproj 30–24
Points per drive +2.9Overall efficiency +2.7CBS
Week 3 · Sun 8:20 pm ETno line
Rams0-1 · Pwr −5.2
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Broncos0-0 · Pwr +0.0
DEN 69% modelproj 20–26
Success rate +1.8Deep passing +1.7NBC
Week 3 · Mon 8:15 pm ETno line
Eagles1-0 · Pwr −0.4
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Bears1-0 · Pwr +2.9
CHI 64% modelproj 24–29
Pass protection vs pressure +2.4Red zone +2.2ESPNABC
Model vs market
The model is deliberately simple: adjusted EPA ratings scaled to points. Treat edges as a conversation starter, not a betting system.
| Game | Score | Home spread | Model margin | Spread edge | O/U | Model total | Total edge | Home WP (model) | Home WP (market) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL @ GB | – | −0.3 | – | – | 37.1 | – | 49% | – | |
| LAC @ BUF | – | +8.0 | – | – | 50.2 | – | 72% | – | |
| SEA @ WAS | – | +0.4 | – | – | 46.4 | – | 51% | – | |
| CIN @ PIT | – | +1.8 | – | – | 37.5 | – | 55% | – | |
| TEN @ NYG | – | +6.0 | – | – | 53.9 | – | 67% | – | |
| KC @ MIA | – | −1.2 | – | – | 43.2 | – | 46% | – | |
| NE @ JAX | – | +9.5 | – | – | 46.6 | – | 76% | – | |
| CAR @ CLE | – | −2.1 | – | – | 53.6 | – | 44% | – | |
| NYJ @ DET | – | −2.5 | – | – | 45.8 | – | 43% | – | |
| HOU @ IND | – | −1.4 | – | – | 50.3 | – | 46% | – | |
| MIN @ TB | – | −2.7 | – | – | 43.7 | – | 42% | – | |
| ARI @ SF | – | +2.9 | – | – | 45.3 | – | 58% | – | |
| LV @ NO | – | −0.6 | – | – | 42.6 | – | 48% | – | |
| BAL @ DAL | – | −5.1 | – | – | 53.9 | – | 35% | – | |
| LA @ DEN | – | +6.7 | – | – | 46.2 | – | 69% | – | |
| PHI @ CHI | – | +4.8 | – | – | 53.4 | – | 64% | – |