Week 3 · Sunday, Sep 27 · 1:00 pm ET · Acrisure Stadium
TBD referee · 7 rest days (CIN) / 7 (PIT)
Model
Projected CIN 19.3 – PIT 21.1
margin +1.8 · total 40.5
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| CIN | PIT | |
|---|---|---|
| +1.0 14th | Power rating | 12th +1.3 |
| −0.0 18th | Offense rating | 30th −3.2 |
| +1.1 12th | Defense rating | 2nd +4.6 |
| +0.001 18th | Offense EPA/play | 30th −0.252 |
| −0.081 12th | Defense EPA/play allowed | 2nd −0.358 |
| 47.6% 10th | Offense success rate | 32nd 33.9% |
| 51.8% 28th | Defense success rate allowed | 5th 36.7% |
| −0.030 21st | Pass EPA/dropback | 27th −0.251 |
| −0.168 8th | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 1st −0.638 |
| +0.050 8th | Rush EPA/carry | 27th −0.252 |
| +0.118 29th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 13th −0.113 |
| 11.1% 7th | Explosive play rate | 22nd 6.2% |
| 5.4% 7th | Explosive rate allowed | 20th 10.0% |
| 57.1% 5th | 3rd-down conversion | 23rd 25.0% |
| 50.0% 24th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 2nd 16.7% |
| 40.0% 24th | Red-zone TD rate | 20th 50.0% |
| 50.0% 9th | Red-zone TD rate allowed | – – |
| 16.2% 21st | Pressure rate allowed | 13th 14.0% |
| 16.7% 11th | Pressure rate | 10th 19.2% |
| 10.0% 15th | Turnover rate | 10th 7.1% |
| 40.0% 1st | Takeaway rate | 13th 15.4% |
| 33.0 7th | Points per game | 22nd 20.0 |
| 27.0 18th | Points allowed per game | 6th 13.0 |
| +5.7% – | Pass rate over expected | – +11.2% |
| 23.1 3rd | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 6th 25.7 |
| +0.001 – | Off epa last3 | – −0.252 |
| −0.081 – | Def epa last3 | – −0.358 |
| +5.6 3rd | Special teams EPA | 19th +0.8 |
CIN offense vs PIT defense
Offense percentiles for CIN against the matching defensive percentiles for PIT. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
CINPIT D
PIT offense vs CIN defense
Offense percentiles for PIT against the matching defensive percentiles for CIN. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
PITCIN D