Week 3 · Sunday, Sep 27 · 1:00 pm ET · Huntington Bank Field
TBD referee · 7 rest days (CAR) / 7 (CLE)
Model
Projected CAR 29.4 – CLE 27.3
margin −2.1 · total 56.7
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| CAR | CLE | |
|---|---|---|
| −2.9 25th | Power rating | 32nd −6.5 |
| +1.6 9th | Offense rating | 26th −2.7 |
| −4.5 31st | Defense rating | 30th −3.8 |
| +0.130 9th | Offense EPA/play | 26th −0.206 |
| +0.361 31st | Defense EPA/play allowed | 30th +0.310 |
| 47.1% 11th | Offense success rate | 17th 43.1% |
| 53.3% 29th | Defense success rate allowed | 32nd 59.3% |
| +0.242 9th | Pass EPA/dropback | 28th −0.257 |
| +0.551 29th | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 32nd +0.731 |
| −0.106 19th | Rush EPA/carry | 21st −0.119 |
| +0.143 31st | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 20th −0.053 |
| 11.8% 6th | Explosive play rate | 18th 7.8% |
| 12.0% 28th | Explosive rate allowed | 32nd 16.7% |
| 44.4% 12th | 3rd-down conversion | 32nd 12.5% |
| 71.4% 30th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 25th 55.6% |
| 100.0% 1st | Red-zone TD rate | 30th 0.0% |
| 100.0% 23rd | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 23rd 100.0% |
| 11.6% 10th | Pressure rate allowed | 31st 30.0% |
| 7.9% 28th | Pressure rate | 22nd 12.5% |
| 15.4% 19th | Turnover rate | 30th 22.2% |
| 7.1% 22nd | Takeaway rate | 25th 0.0% |
| 37.0 4th | Points per game | 28th 10.0 |
| 59.0 32nd | Points allowed per game | 27th 34.0 |
| +3.1% – | Pass rate over expected | – −9.7% |
| 24.7 4th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 32nd 38.8 |
| +0.130 – | Off epa last3 | – −0.206 |
| +0.361 – | Def epa last3 | – +0.310 |
| −0.5 24th | Special teams EPA | 2nd +6.1 |
CAR offense vs CLE defense
Offense percentiles for CAR against the matching defensive percentiles for CLE. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
CARCLE D
CLE offense vs CAR defense
Offense percentiles for CLE against the matching defensive percentiles for CAR. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
CLECAR D