Week 3 · Sunday, Sep 27 · 4:05 pm ET · Raymond James Stadium
TBD referee · 7 rest days (MIN) / 7 (TB)
Model
Projected MIN 24.8 – TB 22.0
margin −2.7 · total 46.8
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| MIN | TB | |
|---|---|---|
| +3.2 7th | Power rating | 19th −1.0 |
| +0.8 12th | Offense rating | 21st −1.1 |
| +2.4 8th | Defense rating | 15th +0.0 |
| +0.071 12th | Offense EPA/play | 21st −0.081 |
| −0.181 8th | Defense EPA/play allowed | 15th +0.001 |
| 38.7% 26th | Offense success rate | 5th 51.8% |
| 38.2% 6th | Defense success rate allowed | 23rd 47.6% |
| +0.233 10th | Pass EPA/dropback | 25th −0.168 |
| −0.059 11th | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 12th −0.030 |
| −0.125 22nd | Rush EPA/carry | 4th +0.118 |
| −0.438 2nd | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 25th +0.050 |
| 3.2% 29th | Explosive play rate | 26th 5.4% |
| 13.2% 30th | Explosive rate allowed | 26th 11.1% |
| 57.1% 5th | 3rd-down conversion | 9th 50.0% |
| 25.0% 8th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 27th 57.1% |
| 100.0% 1st | Red-zone TD rate | 20th 50.0% |
| 25.0% 3rd | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 7th 40.0% |
| 16.1% 20th | Pressure rate allowed | 22nd 16.7% |
| 32.6% 1st | Pressure rate | 12th 16.2% |
| 7.7% 12th | Turnover rate | 32nd 40.0% |
| 16.7% 10th | Takeaway rate | 18th 10.0% |
| 39.0 3rd | Points per game | 13th 27.0 |
| 22.0 12th | Points allowed per game | 26th 33.0 |
| −8.0% – | Pass rate over expected | – +2.7% |
| 32.7 26th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 15th 29.8 |
| +0.071 – | Off epa last3 | – −0.081 |
| −0.181 – | Def epa last3 | – +0.001 |
| +3.0 14th | Special teams EPA | 4th +5.2 |
MIN offense vs TB defense
Offense percentiles for MIN against the matching defensive percentiles for TB. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
MINTB D
TB offense vs MIN defense
Offense percentiles for TB against the matching defensive percentiles for MIN. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
TBMIN D