Week 3 · Sunday, Sep 27 · 1:00 pm ET · EverBank Stadium
TBD referee · 7 rest days (NE) / 7 (JAX)
Model
Projected NE 20.1 – JAX 29.6
margin +9.5 · total 49.7
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| NE | JAX | |
|---|---|---|
| −1.5 22nd | Power rating | 1st +6.5 |
| −1.2 22nd | Offense rating | 3rd +3.8 |
| −0.3 18th | Defense rating | 7th +2.7 |
| −0.092 22nd | Offense EPA/play | 3rd +0.310 |
| +0.029 18th | Defense EPA/play allowed | 7th −0.206 |
| 40.9% 23rd | Offense success rate | 1st 59.3% |
| 38.8% 8th | Defense success rate allowed | 16th 43.1% |
| +0.127 15th | Pass EPA/dropback | 1st +0.731 |
| +0.196 21st | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 5th −0.257 |
| −0.451 32nd | Rush EPA/carry | 13th −0.053 |
| −0.195 8th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 12th −0.119 |
| 1.4% 31st | Explosive play rate | 1st 16.7% |
| 10.2% 21st | Explosive rate allowed | 15th 7.8% |
| 31.3% 21st | 3rd-down conversion | 8th 55.6% |
| 18.2% 4th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 1st 12.5% |
| 50.0% 20th | Red-zone TD rate | 1st 100.0% |
| 0.0% 1st | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 1st 0.0% |
| 14.3% 14th | Pressure rate allowed | 11th 12.5% |
| 22.2% 6th | Pressure rate | 2nd 30.0% |
| 33.3% 31st | Turnover rate | 1st 0.0% |
| 0.0% 25th | Takeaway rate | 3rd 22.2% |
| 10.0 28th | Points per game | 6th 34.0 |
| 13.0 6th | Points allowed per game | 2nd 10.0 |
| −3.5% – | Pass rate over expected | – −4.3% |
| 31.9 24th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 14th 29.4 |
| −0.092 – | Off epa last3 | – +0.310 |
| +0.029 – | Def epa last3 | – −0.206 |
| +1.0 18th | Special teams EPA | 15th +3.0 |
NE offense vs JAX defense
Offense percentiles for NE against the matching defensive percentiles for JAX. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
NEJAX D
JAX offense vs NE defense
Offense percentiles for JAX against the matching defensive percentiles for NE. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
JAXNE D