Week 3 · Sunday, Sep 27 · 8:20 pm ET · Empower Field at Mile High
TBD referee · 6 rest days (LA) / 7 (DEN)
Model
Projected LA 22.5 – DEN 23.0
margin +0.5 · total 45.5
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| LA | DEN | |
|---|---|---|
| −5.2 29th | Power rating | 31st −6.2 |
| −2.9 28th | Offense rating | 32nd −4.8 |
| −2.3 26th | Defense rating | 22nd −1.4 |
| −0.226 28th | Offense EPA/play | 32nd −0.378 |
| +0.190 26th | Defense EPA/play allowed | 22nd +0.118 |
| 43.3% 16th | Offense success rate | 29th 36.0% |
| 56.9% 30th | Defense success rate allowed | 11th 40.9% |
| −0.270 29th | Pass EPA/dropback | 31st −0.442 |
| +0.227 22nd | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 13th −0.014 |
| −0.171 24th | Rush EPA/carry | 26th −0.228 |
| +0.142 30th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 32nd +0.259 |
| 6.7% 21st | Explosive play rate | 30th 2.0% |
| 7.7% 13th | Explosive rate allowed | 18th 9.1% |
| 22.2% 26th | 3rd-down conversion | 30th 16.7% |
| 58.3% 29th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 26th 56.3% |
| 33.3% 26th | Red-zone TD rate | 20th 50.0% |
| 66.7% 14th | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 13th 60.0% |
| 27.6% 30th | Pressure rate allowed | 25th 21.2% |
| 5.6% 30th | Pressure rate | 15th 15.2% |
| 20.0% 27th | Turnover rate | 21st 16.7% |
| 11.1% 17th | Takeaway rate | 19th 8.3% |
| 7.0 32nd | Points per game | 28th 10.0 |
| 27.0 18th | Points allowed per game | 23rd 31.0 |
| −14.8% – | Pass rate over expected | – +1.7% |
| 31.8 23rd | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 27th 33.5 |
| −0.226 – | Off epa last3 | – −0.378 |
| +0.190 – | Def epa last3 | – +0.118 |
| +0.1 22nd | Special teams EPA | 10th +3.6 |
LA offense vs DEN defense
Offense percentiles for LA against the matching defensive percentiles for DEN. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
LADEN D
DEN offense vs LA defense
Offense percentiles for DEN against the matching defensive percentiles for LA. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
DENLA D