Week 3 · Sunday, Sep 27 · 1:00 pm ET · Lucas Oil Stadium
TBD referee · 7 rest days (HOU) / 7 (IND)
Model
Projected HOU 27.4 – IND 26.0
margin −1.4 · total 53.4
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| HOU | IND | |
|---|---|---|
| −2.6 23rd | Power rating | 30th −5.5 |
| +0.8 13th | Offense rating | 27th −2.9 |
| −3.4 29th | Defense rating | 27th −2.6 |
| +0.071 13th | Offense EPA/play | 27th −0.225 |
| +0.278 29th | Defense EPA/play allowed | 27th +0.209 |
| 48.1% 9th | Offense success rate | 20th 42.6% |
| 41.1% 12th | Defense success rate allowed | 21st 46.9% |
| +0.098 16th | Pass EPA/dropback | 30th −0.410 |
| +0.556 30th | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 26th +0.316 |
| +0.030 9th | Rush EPA/carry | 5th +0.116 |
| −0.263 5th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 27th +0.102 |
| 8.9% 17th | Explosive play rate | 4th 13.0% |
| 14.3% 31st | Explosive rate allowed | 24th 10.9% |
| 43.8% 13th | 3rd-down conversion | 22nd 30.0% |
| 33.3% 13th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 16th 37.5% |
| 80.0% 10th | Red-zone TD rate | 1st 100.0% |
| 33.3% 4th | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 18th 75.0% |
| 21.4% 26th | Pressure rate allowed | 29th 26.5% |
| 9.1% 26th | Pressure rate | 25th 10.3% |
| 18.2% 24th | Turnover rate | 21st 16.7% |
| 0.0% 25th | Takeaway rate | 20th 7.7% |
| 31.0 8th | Points per game | 18th 23.0 |
| 36.0 28th | Points allowed per game | 31st 41.0 |
| −4.8% – | Pass rate over expected | – −4.1% |
| 31.1 21st | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 30th 35.7 |
| +0.071 – | Off epa last3 | – −0.225 |
| +0.278 – | Def epa last3 | – +0.209 |
| +4.3 9th | Special teams EPA | 8th +4.4 |
HOU offense vs IND defense
Offense percentiles for HOU against the matching defensive percentiles for IND. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
HOUIND D
IND offense vs HOU defense
Offense percentiles for IND against the matching defensive percentiles for HOU. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
INDHOU D