Week 3 · Sunday, Sep 27 · 4:25 pm ET · Caesars Superdome (dome)
TBD referee · 7 rest days (LV) / 7 (NO)
Model
Projected LV 23.1 – NO 22.5
margin −0.6 · total 45.7
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| LV | NO | |
|---|---|---|
| +2.7 9th | Power rating | 15th +0.6 |
| −0.4 20th | Offense rating | 17th +0.2 |
| +3.1 4th | Defense rating | 14th +0.4 |
| −0.029 20th | Offense EPA/play | 17th +0.019 |
| −0.242 4th | Defense EPA/play allowed | 14th −0.027 |
| 43.1% 18th | Offense success rate | 15th 43.8% |
| 34.6% 3rd | Defense success rate allowed | 20th 45.5% |
| +0.027 18th | Pass EPA/dropback | 17th +0.052 |
| −0.183 7th | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 14th +0.012 |
| −0.083 16th | Rush EPA/carry | 15th −0.075 |
| −0.399 3rd | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 19th −0.072 |
| 7.7% 19th | Explosive play rate | 16th 9.0% |
| 10.9% 23rd | Explosive rate allowed | 22nd 10.4% |
| 41.7% 15th | 3rd-down conversion | 10th 47.1% |
| 20.0% 6th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 17th 38.5% |
| 75.0% 13th | Red-zone TD rate | 10th 80.0% |
| 33.3% 4th | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 20th 80.0% |
| 6.5% 4th | Pressure rate allowed | 14th 14.3% |
| 24.3% 5th | Pressure rate | 9th 19.5% |
| 18.2% 24th | Turnover rate | 29th 21.4% |
| 18.2% 7th | Takeaway rate | 24th 6.7% |
| 27.0 13th | Points per game | 11th 30.0 |
| 13.0 6th | Points allowed per game | 23rd 31.0 |
| −5.6% – | Pass rate over expected | – +4.1% |
| 36.5 31st | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 2nd 21.6 |
| −0.029 – | Off epa last3 | – +0.019 |
| −0.242 – | Def epa last3 | – −0.027 |
| +5.0 5th | Special teams EPA | 29th −2.4 |
LV offense vs NO defense
Offense percentiles for LV against the matching defensive percentiles for NO. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
LVNO D
NO offense vs LV defense
Offense percentiles for NO against the matching defensive percentiles for LV. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
NOLV D