Week 3 · Sunday, Sep 27 · 4:05 pm ET · Levi's Stadium
TBD referee · 7 rest days (ARI) / 7 (SF)
Model
Projected ARI 22.7 – SF 25.6
margin +2.9 · total 48.4
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| ARI | SF | |
|---|---|---|
| +3.9 5th | Power rating | 4th +5.2 |
| +1.7 8th | Offense rating | 7th +2.3 |
| +2.2 9th | Defense rating | 5th +2.9 |
| +0.139 8th | Offense EPA/play | 7th +0.190 |
| −0.167 9th | Defense EPA/play allowed | 5th −0.226 |
| 48.6% 6th | Offense success rate | 3rd 56.9% |
| 40.0% 9th | Defense success rate allowed | 17th 43.3% |
| +0.270 8th | Pass EPA/dropback | 11th +0.227 |
| −0.087 10th | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 4th −0.270 |
| −0.044 11th | Rush EPA/carry | 3rd +0.142 |
| −0.360 4th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 9th −0.171 |
| 5.6% 24th | Explosive play rate | 19th 7.7% |
| 5.5% 8th | Explosive rate allowed | 12th 6.7% |
| 46.2% 11th | 3rd-down conversion | 4th 58.3% |
| 25.0% 8th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 7th 22.2% |
| 40.0% 24th | Red-zone TD rate | 15th 66.7% |
| 66.7% 14th | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 4th 33.3% |
| 12.8% 12th | Pressure rate allowed | 3rd 5.6% |
| 11.4% 24th | Pressure rate | 3rd 27.6% |
| 0.0% 1st | Turnover rate | 16th 11.1% |
| 20.0% 5th | Takeaway rate | 5th 20.0% |
| 26.0 16th | Points per game | 13th 27.0 |
| 14.0 9th | Points allowed per game | 1st 7.0 |
| −0.5% – | Pass rate over expected | – +5.1% |
| 30.5 17th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 25th 32.7 |
| +0.139 – | Off epa last3 | – +0.190 |
| −0.167 – | Def epa last3 | – −0.226 |
| −3.9 30th | Special teams EPA | 25th −0.7 |
ARI offense vs SF defense
Offense percentiles for ARI against the matching defensive percentiles for SF. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
ARISF D
SF offense vs ARI defense
Offense percentiles for SF against the matching defensive percentiles for ARI. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
SFARI D