Week 15 matchups
Model projections from opponent-adjusted EPA ratings plus 1.5 points of home field, compared with the market. Edges are z-score differences between an offense and the defense it faces.
Week 15 · Thu 8:15 pm ETno line
49ers1-0 · Pwr +5.2
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Chargers0-1 · Pwr −3.9
SF 71% modelproj 26–19
Points per drive -2.4Success rate +2.4Prime Video
Week 15 · Sat 5:00 pm ETno line
Seahawks1-0 · Pwr +1.5
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Eagles1-0 · Pwr −0.4
SEA 51% modelproj 23–23
Rushing attack -2.5Ball security vs takeaways +2.4FOX
Week 15 · Sat 8:20 pm ETno line
Bears1-0 · Pwr +2.9
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Bills1-0 · Pwr +2.6
BUF 54% modelproj 28–29
Points per drive +2.8Early downs +2.5CBS
Week 15 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Browns0-1 · Pwr −6.5
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Giants1-0 · Pwr +1.2
NYG 75% modelproj 23–32
Success rate +4.3Passing attack +3.8CBS
Week 15 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Jaguars1-0 · Pwr +6.5
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Texans0-1 · Pwr −2.6
JAX 71% modelproj 30–22
Explosive plays +3.6Passing attack +3.5CBS
Week 15 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Dolphins0-1 · Pwr −2.7
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Packers0-1 · Pwr −3.2
GB 53% modelproj 20–21
Deep passing +2.9Success rate -2.4FOX
Week 15 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Bengals1-0 · Pwr +1.0
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Panthers0-1 · Pwr −2.9
CIN 57% modelproj 27–24
Ball security vs takeaways -3.1Points per drive +2.7FOX
Week 15 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Ravens1-0 · Pwr +5.5
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Steelers1-0 · Pwr +1.3
BAL 58% modelproj 20–18
Deep passing +3.8Passing attack -2.7CBS
Week 15 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Falcons0-1 · Pwr −1.3
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Commanders0-1 · Pwr +0.4
WAS 59% modelproj 18–21
Early downs -2.8Success rate -2.8FOX
Week 15 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Colts0-1 · Pwr −5.5
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Titans0-1 · Pwr −3.4
TEN 60% modelproj 21–25
Explosive plays +1.8Deep passing -1.8CBS
Week 15 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Saints0-1 · Pwr +0.6
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Buccaneers0-1 · Pwr −1.0
NO 50% modelproj 23–22
Ball security vs takeaways -2.2Rushing attack +1.5FOX
Week 15 · Sun 4:05 pm ETno line
Jets1-0 · Pwr +3.4
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Cardinals1-0 · Pwr +3.9
ARI 56% modelproj 22–24
Ball security vs takeaways +2.4Pass protection vs pressure +2.1FOX
Week 15 · Sun 4:25 pm ETno line
Broncos0-0 · Pwr +0.0
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Raiders1-0 · Pwr +2.7
LV 62% modelproj 20–24
Rushing attack -1.8Success rate -1.5CBS
Week 15 · Sun 4:25 pm ETno line
Cowboys0-1 · Pwr −1.2
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Rams0-1 · Pwr −5.2
DAL 58% modelproj 28–26
Third down +2.8Explosive plays -2.4CBS
Week 15 · Sun 8:20 pm ETno line
Lions1-0 · Pwr −0.6
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Vikings1-0 · Pwr +3.2
MIN 65% modelproj 20–25
Pass protection vs pressure -2.8Deep passing -2.4NBC
Week 15 · Mon 8:15 pm ETno line
Patriots0-1 · Pwr −1.5
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Chiefs0-0 · Pwr +0.0
KC 59% modelproj 21–24
Red zone -2.1Rushing attack -2.1ESPNABC
Model vs market
The model is deliberately simple: adjusted EPA ratings scaled to points. Treat edges as a conversation starter, not a betting system.
| Game | Score | Home spread | Model margin | Spread edge | O/U | Model total | Total edge | Home WP (model) | Home WP (market) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF @ LAC | – | −7.6 | – | – | 45.3 | – | 29% | – | |
| SEA @ PHI | – | −0.4 | – | – | 46.4 | – | 49% | – | |
| CHI @ BUF | – | +1.2 | – | – | 56.7 | – | 54% | – | |
| CLE @ NYG | – | +9.2 | – | – | 55.4 | – | 75% | – | |
| JAX @ HOU | – | −7.6 | – | – | 51.8 | – | 29% | – | |
| MIA @ GB | – | +1.0 | – | – | 41.3 | – | 53% | – | |
| CIN @ CAR | – | −2.5 | – | – | 51.3 | – | 43% | – | |
| BAL @ PIT | – | −2.6 | – | – | 38.3 | – | 42% | – | |
| ATL @ WAS | – | +3.2 | – | – | 39.5 | – | 59% | – | |
| IND @ TEN | – | +3.6 | – | – | 45.8 | – | 60% | – | |
| NO @ TB | – | −0.1 | – | – | 45.0 | – | 50% | – | |
| NYJ @ ARI | – | +2.0 | – | – | 45.6 | – | 56% | – | |
| DEN @ LV | – | +4.2 | – | – | 43.2 | – | 62% | – | |
| DAL @ LA | – | −2.6 | – | – | 53.7 | – | 42% | – | |
| DET @ MIN | – | +5.3 | – | – | 44.6 | – | 65% | – | |
| NE @ KC | – | +3.0 | – | – | 45.9 | – | 59% | – |