Week 15 · Saturday, Dec 19 · 8:20 pm ET · Highmark Stadium
TBD referee · 6 rest days (CHI) / 6 (BUF)
Model
Projected CHI 29.3 – BUF 30.5
margin +1.2 · total 59.7
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| CHI | BUF | |
|---|---|---|
| +2.9 8th | Power rating | 10th +2.6 |
| +4.5 2nd | Offense rating | 4th +3.4 |
| −1.6 24th | Defense rating | 20th −0.8 |
| +0.361 2nd | Offense EPA/play | 4th +0.278 |
| +0.130 24th | Defense EPA/play allowed | 20th +0.071 |
| 53.3% 4th | Offense success rate | 21st 41.1% |
| 47.1% 22nd | Defense success rate allowed | 24th 48.1% |
| +0.551 4th | Pass EPA/dropback | 3rd +0.556 |
| +0.242 24th | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 17th +0.098 |
| +0.143 2nd | Rush EPA/carry | 28th −0.263 |
| −0.106 14th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 24th +0.030 |
| 12.0% 5th | Explosive play rate | 2nd 14.3% |
| 11.8% 27th | Explosive rate allowed | 16th 8.9% |
| 71.4% 3rd | 3rd-down conversion | 18th 33.3% |
| 44.4% 21st | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 20th 43.8% |
| 100.0% 1st | Red-zone TD rate | 26th 33.3% |
| 100.0% 23rd | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 20th 80.0% |
| 7.9% 5th | Pressure rate allowed | 7th 9.1% |
| 11.6% 23rd | Pressure rate | 7th 21.4% |
| 7.1% 10th | Turnover rate | 1st 0.0% |
| 15.4% 13th | Takeaway rate | 7th 18.2% |
| 59.0 1st | Points per game | 5th 36.0 |
| 37.0 29th | Points allowed per game | 23rd 31.0 |
| −1.7% – | Pass rate over expected | – +3.7% |
| 28.6 12th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 9th 28.0 |
| +0.361 – | Off epa last3 | – +0.278 |
| +0.130 – | Def epa last3 | – +0.071 |
| +6.4 1st | Special teams EPA | 7th +4.4 |
CHI offense vs BUF defense
Offense percentiles for CHI against the matching defensive percentiles for BUF. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
CHIBUF D
BUF offense vs CHI defense
Offense percentiles for BUF against the matching defensive percentiles for CHI. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
BUFCHI D