Week 15 · Sunday, Dec 20 · 1:00 pm ET · Reliant Stadium
TBD referee · 6 rest days (JAX) / 7 (HOU)
Model
Projected JAX 31.2 – HOU 23.6
margin −7.6 · total 54.9
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| JAX | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| +6.5 1st | Power rating | 23rd −2.6 |
| +3.8 3rd | Offense rating | 13th +0.8 |
| +2.7 7th | Defense rating | 29th −3.4 |
| +0.310 3rd | Offense EPA/play | 13th +0.071 |
| −0.206 7th | Defense EPA/play allowed | 29th +0.278 |
| 59.3% 1st | Offense success rate | 9th 48.1% |
| 43.1% 16th | Defense success rate allowed | 12th 41.1% |
| +0.731 1st | Pass EPA/dropback | 16th +0.098 |
| −0.257 5th | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 30th +0.556 |
| −0.053 13th | Rush EPA/carry | 9th +0.030 |
| −0.119 12th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 5th −0.263 |
| 16.7% 1st | Explosive play rate | 17th 8.9% |
| 7.8% 15th | Explosive rate allowed | 31st 14.3% |
| 55.6% 8th | 3rd-down conversion | 13th 43.8% |
| 12.5% 1st | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 13th 33.3% |
| 100.0% 1st | Red-zone TD rate | 10th 80.0% |
| 0.0% 1st | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 4th 33.3% |
| 12.5% 11th | Pressure rate allowed | 26th 21.4% |
| 30.0% 2nd | Pressure rate | 26th 9.1% |
| 0.0% 1st | Turnover rate | 24th 18.2% |
| 22.2% 3rd | Takeaway rate | 25th 0.0% |
| 34.0 6th | Points per game | 8th 31.0 |
| 10.0 2nd | Points allowed per game | 28th 36.0 |
| −4.3% – | Pass rate over expected | – −4.8% |
| 29.4 14th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 21st 31.1 |
| +0.310 – | Off epa last3 | – +0.071 |
| −0.206 – | Def epa last3 | – +0.278 |
| +3.0 15th | Special teams EPA | 9th +4.3 |
JAX offense vs HOU defense
Offense percentiles for JAX against the matching defensive percentiles for HOU. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
JAXHOU D
HOU offense vs JAX defense
Offense percentiles for HOU against the matching defensive percentiles for JAX. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
HOUJAX D