Week 15 · Sunday, Dec 20 · 1:00 pm ET · Acrisure Stadium
TBD referee · 7 rest days (BAL) / 6 (PIT)
Model
Projected BAL 22.0 – PIT 19.3
margin −2.6 · total 41.3
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| BAL | PIT | |
|---|---|---|
| +5.5 3rd | Power rating | 12th +1.3 |
| +2.6 6th | Offense rating | 30th −3.2 |
| +2.9 6th | Defense rating | 2nd +4.6 |
| +0.209 6th | Offense EPA/play | 30th −0.252 |
| −0.225 6th | Defense EPA/play allowed | 2nd −0.358 |
| 46.9% 12th | Offense success rate | 32nd 33.9% |
| 42.6% 13th | Defense success rate allowed | 5th 36.7% |
| +0.316 7th | Pass EPA/dropback | 27th −0.251 |
| −0.410 3rd | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 1st −0.638 |
| +0.102 6th | Rush EPA/carry | 27th −0.252 |
| +0.116 28th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 13th −0.113 |
| 10.9% 8th | Explosive play rate | 22nd 6.2% |
| 13.0% 29th | Explosive rate allowed | 20th 10.0% |
| 37.5% 17th | 3rd-down conversion | 23rd 25.0% |
| 30.0% 11th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 2nd 16.7% |
| 75.0% 13th | Red-zone TD rate | 20th 50.0% |
| 100.0% 23rd | Red-zone TD rate allowed | – – |
| 10.3% 8th | Pressure rate allowed | 13th 14.0% |
| 26.5% 4th | Pressure rate | 10th 19.2% |
| 7.7% 12th | Turnover rate | 10th 7.1% |
| 16.7% 10th | Takeaway rate | 13th 15.4% |
| 41.0 2nd | Points per game | 22nd 20.0 |
| 23.0 14th | Points allowed per game | 6th 13.0 |
| −5.8% – | Pass rate over expected | – +11.2% |
| 30.8 19th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 6th 25.7 |
| +0.209 – | Off epa last3 | – −0.252 |
| −0.225 – | Def epa last3 | – −0.358 |
| +4.8 6th | Special teams EPA | 19th +0.8 |
BAL offense vs PIT defense
Offense percentiles for BAL against the matching defensive percentiles for PIT. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
BALPIT D
PIT offense vs BAL defense
Offense percentiles for PIT against the matching defensive percentiles for BAL. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
PITBAL D