Week 15 · Sunday, Dec 20 · 1:00 pm ET · Nissan Stadium
TBD referee · 7 rest days (IND) / 7 (TEN)
Model
Projected IND 22.6 – TEN 26.2
margin +3.6 · total 48.8
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| IND | TEN | |
|---|---|---|
| −5.5 30th | Power rating | 27th −3.4 |
| −2.9 27th | Offense rating | 23rd −1.8 |
| −2.6 27th | Defense rating | 23rd −1.5 |
| −0.225 27th | Offense EPA/play | 23rd −0.141 |
| +0.209 27th | Defense EPA/play allowed | 23rd +0.127 |
| 42.6% 20th | Offense success rate | 14th 44.0% |
| 46.9% 21st | Defense success rate allowed | 26th 48.4% |
| −0.410 30th | Pass EPA/dropback | 24th −0.152 |
| +0.316 26th | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 27th +0.338 |
| +0.116 5th | Rush EPA/carry | 17th −0.096 |
| +0.102 27th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 23rd −0.038 |
| 13.0% 4th | Explosive play rate | 28th 4.0% |
| 10.9% 24th | Explosive rate allowed | 24th 10.9% |
| 30.0% 22nd | 3rd-down conversion | 18th 33.3% |
| 37.5% 16th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 4th 18.2% |
| 100.0% 1st | Red-zone TD rate | 1st 100.0% |
| 75.0% 18th | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 14th 66.7% |
| 26.5% 29th | Pressure rate allowed | 19th 15.4% |
| 10.3% 25th | Pressure rate | 32nd 3.9% |
| 16.7% 21st | Turnover rate | 1st 0.0% |
| 7.7% 20th | Takeaway rate | 25th 0.0% |
| 23.0 18th | Points per game | 28th 10.0 |
| 41.0 31st | Points allowed per game | 14th 23.0 |
| −4.1% – | Pass rate over expected | – +5.8% |
| 35.7 30th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 7th 27.3 |
| −0.225 – | Off epa last3 | – −0.141 |
| +0.209 – | Def epa last3 | – +0.127 |
| +4.4 8th | Special teams EPA | 32nd −5.1 |
IND offense vs TEN defense
Offense percentiles for IND against the matching defensive percentiles for TEN. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
INDTEN D
TEN offense vs IND defense
Offense percentiles for TEN against the matching defensive percentiles for IND. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
TENIND D