Week 15 · Sunday, Dec 20 · 8:20 pm ET · U.S. Bank Stadium (dome)
TBD referee · 7 rest days (DET) / 10 (MIN)
Model
Projected DET 21.2 – MIN 26.5
margin +5.3 · total 47.7
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| DET | MIN | |
|---|---|---|
| −0.6 18th | Power rating | 7th +3.2 |
| −0.4 19th | Offense rating | 12th +0.8 |
| −0.2 16th | Defense rating | 8th +2.4 |
| −0.027 19th | Offense EPA/play | 12th +0.071 |
| +0.019 16th | Defense EPA/play allowed | 8th −0.181 |
| 45.5% 13th | Offense success rate | 26th 38.7% |
| 43.8% 18th | Defense success rate allowed | 6th 38.2% |
| +0.012 19th | Pass EPA/dropback | 10th +0.233 |
| +0.052 16th | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 11th −0.059 |
| −0.072 14th | Rush EPA/carry | 22nd −0.125 |
| −0.075 18th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 2nd −0.438 |
| 10.4% 11th | Explosive play rate | 29th 3.2% |
| 9.0% 17th | Explosive rate allowed | 30th 13.2% |
| 38.5% 16th | 3rd-down conversion | 5th 57.1% |
| 47.1% 23rd | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 8th 25.0% |
| 80.0% 10th | Red-zone TD rate | 1st 100.0% |
| 80.0% 20th | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 3rd 25.0% |
| 19.5% 24th | Pressure rate allowed | 20th 16.1% |
| 14.3% 18th | Pressure rate | 1st 32.6% |
| 6.7% 9th | Turnover rate | 12th 7.7% |
| 21.4% 4th | Takeaway rate | 10th 16.7% |
| 31.0 8th | Points per game | 3rd 39.0 |
| 30.0 22nd | Points allowed per game | 12th 22.0 |
| −2.4% – | Pass rate over expected | – −8.0% |
| 31.1 20th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 26th 32.7 |
| −0.027 – | Off epa last3 | – +0.071 |
| +0.019 – | Def epa last3 | – −0.181 |
| +0.1 23rd | Special teams EPA | 14th +3.0 |
DET offense vs MIN defense
Offense percentiles for DET against the matching defensive percentiles for MIN. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
DETMIN D
MIN offense vs DET defense
Offense percentiles for MIN against the matching defensive percentiles for DET. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
MINDET D