Week 15 · Monday, Dec 21 · 8:15 pm ET · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
TBD referee · 11 rest days (NE) / 8 (KC)
Model
Projected NE 17.9 – KC 27.2
margin +9.3 · total 45.1
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| NE | KC | |
|---|---|---|
| −1.5 22nd | Power rating | 2nd +6.2 |
| −1.2 22nd | Offense rating | 11th +1.4 |
| −0.3 18th | Defense rating | 1st +4.8 |
| −0.092 22nd | Offense EPA/play | 11th +0.118 |
| +0.029 18th | Defense EPA/play allowed | 1st −0.378 |
| 40.9% 23rd | Offense success rate | 22nd 40.9% |
| 38.8% 8th | Defense success rate allowed | 4th 36.0% |
| +0.127 15th | Pass EPA/dropback | 20th −0.014 |
| +0.196 21st | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 2nd −0.442 |
| −0.451 32nd | Rush EPA/carry | 1st +0.259 |
| −0.195 8th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 7th −0.228 |
| 1.4% 31st | Explosive play rate | 15th 9.1% |
| 10.2% 21st | Explosive rate allowed | 3rd 2.0% |
| 31.3% 21st | 3rd-down conversion | 7th 56.3% |
| 18.2% 4th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 2nd 16.7% |
| 50.0% 20th | Red-zone TD rate | 19th 60.0% |
| 0.0% 1st | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 9th 50.0% |
| 14.3% 14th | Pressure rate allowed | 16th 15.2% |
| 22.2% 6th | Pressure rate | 8th 21.2% |
| 33.3% 31st | Turnover rate | 14th 8.3% |
| 0.0% 25th | Takeaway rate | 10th 16.7% |
| 10.0 28th | Points per game | 8th 31.0 |
| 13.0 6th | Points allowed per game | 2nd 10.0 |
| −3.5% – | Pass rate over expected | – +0.4% |
| 31.9 24th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 8th 27.6 |
| −0.092 – | Off epa last3 | – +0.118 |
| +0.029 – | Def epa last3 | – −0.378 |
| +1.0 18th | Special teams EPA | 13th +3.3 |
NE offense vs KC defense
Offense percentiles for NE against the matching defensive percentiles for KC. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
NEKC D
KC offense vs NE defense
Offense percentiles for KC against the matching defensive percentiles for NE. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
KCNE D