Week 15 · Sunday, Dec 20 · 1:00 pm ET · Raymond James Stadium
TBD referee · 7 rest days (NO) / 7 (TB)
Model
Projected NO 24.1 – TB 24.0
margin −0.1 · total 48.1
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| NO | TB | |
|---|---|---|
| +0.6 15th | Power rating | 19th −1.0 |
| +0.2 17th | Offense rating | 21st −1.1 |
| +0.4 14th | Defense rating | 15th +0.0 |
| +0.019 17th | Offense EPA/play | 21st −0.081 |
| −0.027 14th | Defense EPA/play allowed | 15th +0.001 |
| 43.8% 15th | Offense success rate | 5th 51.8% |
| 45.5% 20th | Defense success rate allowed | 23rd 47.6% |
| +0.052 17th | Pass EPA/dropback | 25th −0.168 |
| +0.012 14th | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 12th −0.030 |
| −0.075 15th | Rush EPA/carry | 4th +0.118 |
| −0.072 19th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 25th +0.050 |
| 9.0% 16th | Explosive play rate | 26th 5.4% |
| 10.4% 22nd | Explosive rate allowed | 26th 11.1% |
| 47.1% 10th | 3rd-down conversion | 9th 50.0% |
| 38.5% 17th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 27th 57.1% |
| 80.0% 10th | Red-zone TD rate | 20th 50.0% |
| 80.0% 20th | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 7th 40.0% |
| 14.3% 14th | Pressure rate allowed | 22nd 16.7% |
| 19.5% 9th | Pressure rate | 12th 16.2% |
| 21.4% 29th | Turnover rate | 32nd 40.0% |
| 6.7% 24th | Takeaway rate | 18th 10.0% |
| 30.0 11th | Points per game | 13th 27.0 |
| 31.0 23rd | Points allowed per game | 26th 33.0 |
| +4.1% – | Pass rate over expected | – +2.7% |
| 21.6 2nd | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 15th 29.8 |
| +0.019 – | Off epa last3 | – −0.081 |
| −0.027 – | Def epa last3 | – +0.001 |
| −2.4 29th | Special teams EPA | 4th +5.2 |
NO offense vs TB defense
Offense percentiles for NO against the matching defensive percentiles for TB. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
NOTB D
TB offense vs NO defense
Offense percentiles for TB against the matching defensive percentiles for NO. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
TBNO D