Week 11 matchups
Model projections from opponent-adjusted EPA ratings plus 1.5 points of home field, compared with the market. Edges are z-score differences between an offense and the defense it faces.
Week 11 · Thu 8:15 pm ETno line
Colts0-1 · Pwr −5.5
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Texans0-1 · Pwr −2.6
HOU 63% modelproj 23–27
Deep passing -3.1Explosive plays +2.7Prime Video
Week 11 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Ravens1-0 · Pwr +5.5
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Panthers0-1 · Pwr −2.9
BAL 69% modelproj 29–23
Points per drive +3.1Early downs +3.1FOX
Week 11 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Saints0-1 · Pwr +0.6
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Bears1-0 · Pwr +2.9
CHI 61% modelproj 24–28
Points per drive +2.0Deep passing +1.9FOX
Week 11 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Titans0-1 · Pwr −3.4
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Cowboys0-1 · Pwr −1.2
DAL 61% modelproj 25–29
Pass protection vs pressure +2.5Third down +2.3FOX
Week 11 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Buccaneers0-1 · Pwr −1.0
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Lions1-0 · Pwr −0.6
DET 56% modelproj 22–23
Ball security vs takeaways -3.7Deep passing -1.6CBS
Week 11 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Dolphins0-1 · Pwr −2.7
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Bills1-0 · Pwr +2.6
BUF 69% modelproj 20–27
Deep passing +2.5Deep passing +2.4FOX
Week 11 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Cardinals1-0 · Pwr +3.9
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Chiefs0-0 · Pwr +0.0
ARI 57% modelproj 24–22
Rushing attack -1.6Ball security vs takeaways +1.2CBS
Week 11 · Sun 1:00 pm ETno line
Jaguars1-0 · Pwr +6.5
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Giants1-0 · Pwr +1.2
JAX 61% modelproj 30–26
Passing attack +3.0Overall efficiency +2.8CBS
Week 11 · Sun 4:05 pm ETno line
Jets1-0 · Pwr +3.4
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Chargers0-1 · Pwr −3.9
NYJ 66% modelproj 26–20
Ball security vs takeaways +2.4Points per drive -2.1FOX
Week 11 · Sun 4:25 pm ETno line
Raiders1-0 · Pwr +2.7
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Broncos0-0 · Pwr +0.0
LV 54% modelproj 22–21
Rushing attack -1.8Success rate -1.5CBS
Week 11 · Sun 4:25 pm ETno line
Steelers1-0 · Pwr +1.3
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Eagles1-0 · Pwr −0.4
PIT 51% modelproj 20–20
Early downs -2.8Success rate -2.8CBS
Week 11 · Sun 8:20 pm ETno line
Vikings1-0 · Pwr +3.2
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49ers1-0 · Pwr +5.2
SF 60% modelproj 20–24
Early downs -2.4Deep passing -2.3NBC
Week 11 · Mon 8:15 pm ETno line
Bengals1-0 · Pwr +1.0
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Commanders0-1 · Pwr +0.4
WAS 53% modelproj 23–24
Deep passing +2.0Explosive plays -1.9ESPN
Model vs market
The model is deliberately simple: adjusted EPA ratings scaled to points. Treat edges as a conversation starter, not a betting system.
| Game | Score | Home spread | Model margin | Spread edge | O/U | Model total | Total edge | Home WP (model) | Home WP (market) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND @ HOU | – | +4.4 | – | – | 50.3 | – | 63% | – | |
| BAL @ CAR | – | −6.9 | – | – | 52.1 | – | 31% | – | |
| NO @ CHI | – | +3.8 | – | – | 52.2 | – | 61% | – | |
| TEN @ DAL | – | +3.7 | – | – | 53.9 | – | 61% | – | |
| TB @ DET | – | +2.0 | – | – | 45.0 | – | 56% | – | |
| MIA @ BUF | – | +6.8 | – | – | 47.1 | – | 69% | – | |
| ARI @ KC | – | −2.4 | – | – | 46.3 | – | 43% | – | |
| JAX @ NYG | – | −3.8 | – | – | 55.4 | – | 39% | – | |
| NYJ @ LAC | – | −5.7 | – | – | 45.6 | – | 34% | – | |
| LV @ DEN | – | −1.2 | – | – | 43.2 | – | 46% | – | |
| PIT @ PHI | – | −0.2 | – | – | 39.5 | – | 49% | – | |
| MIN @ SF | – | +3.6 | – | – | 44.3 | – | 60% | – | |
| CIN @ WAS | – | +0.9 | – | – | 46.2 | – | 53% | – |