Week 11 · Sunday, Nov 22 · 1:00 pm ET · Highmark Stadium
TBD referee · 7 rest days (MIA) / 7 (BUF)
Model
Projected MIA 21.7 – BUF 28.5
margin +6.8 · total 50.2
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| MIA | BUF | |
|---|---|---|
| −2.7 24th | Power rating | 10th +2.6 |
| −3.1 29th | Offense rating | 4th +3.4 |
| +0.4 13th | Defense rating | 20th −0.8 |
| −0.242 29th | Offense EPA/play | 4th +0.278 |
| −0.029 13th | Defense EPA/play allowed | 20th +0.071 |
| 34.6% 30th | Offense success rate | 21st 41.1% |
| 43.1% 15th | Defense success rate allowed | 24th 48.1% |
| −0.183 26th | Pass EPA/dropback | 3rd +0.556 |
| +0.027 15th | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 17th +0.098 |
| −0.399 30th | Rush EPA/carry | 28th −0.263 |
| −0.083 17th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 24th +0.030 |
| 10.9% 10th | Explosive play rate | 2nd 14.3% |
| 7.7% 13th | Explosive rate allowed | 16th 8.9% |
| 20.0% 27th | 3rd-down conversion | 18th 33.3% |
| 41.7% 18th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 20th 43.8% |
| 33.3% 26th | Red-zone TD rate | 26th 33.3% |
| 75.0% 18th | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 20th 80.0% |
| 24.3% 28th | Pressure rate allowed | 7th 9.1% |
| 6.5% 29th | Pressure rate | 7th 21.4% |
| 18.2% 24th | Turnover rate | 1st 0.0% |
| 18.2% 7th | Takeaway rate | 7th 18.2% |
| 13.0 25th | Points per game | 5th 36.0 |
| 27.0 18th | Points allowed per game | 23rd 31.0 |
| −2.7% – | Pass rate over expected | – +3.7% |
| 34.4 29th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 9th 28.0 |
| −0.242 – | Off epa last3 | – +0.278 |
| −0.029 – | Def epa last3 | – +0.071 |
| −1.2 27th | Special teams EPA | 7th +4.4 |
MIA offense vs BUF defense
Offense percentiles for MIA against the matching defensive percentiles for BUF. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
MIABUF D
BUF offense vs MIA defense
Offense percentiles for BUF against the matching defensive percentiles for MIA. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
BUFMIA D