Week 11 · Sunday, Nov 22 · 1:00 pm ET · Bank of America Stadium
TBD referee · 6 rest days (BAL) / 7 (CAR)
Model
Projected BAL 31.0 – CAR 24.1
margin −6.9 · total 55.1
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| BAL | CAR | |
|---|---|---|
| +5.5 3rd | Power rating | 25th −2.9 |
| +2.6 6th | Offense rating | 9th +1.6 |
| +2.9 6th | Defense rating | 31st −4.5 |
| +0.209 6th | Offense EPA/play | 9th +0.130 |
| −0.225 6th | Defense EPA/play allowed | 31st +0.361 |
| 46.9% 12th | Offense success rate | 11th 47.1% |
| 42.6% 13th | Defense success rate allowed | 29th 53.3% |
| +0.316 7th | Pass EPA/dropback | 9th +0.242 |
| −0.410 3rd | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 29th +0.551 |
| +0.102 6th | Rush EPA/carry | 19th −0.106 |
| +0.116 28th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 31st +0.143 |
| 10.9% 8th | Explosive play rate | 6th 11.8% |
| 13.0% 29th | Explosive rate allowed | 28th 12.0% |
| 37.5% 17th | 3rd-down conversion | 12th 44.4% |
| 30.0% 11th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 30th 71.4% |
| 75.0% 13th | Red-zone TD rate | 1st 100.0% |
| 100.0% 23rd | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 23rd 100.0% |
| 10.3% 8th | Pressure rate allowed | 10th 11.6% |
| 26.5% 4th | Pressure rate | 28th 7.9% |
| 7.7% 12th | Turnover rate | 19th 15.4% |
| 16.7% 10th | Takeaway rate | 22nd 7.1% |
| 41.0 2nd | Points per game | 4th 37.0 |
| 23.0 14th | Points allowed per game | 32nd 59.0 |
| −5.8% – | Pass rate over expected | – +3.1% |
| 30.8 19th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 4th 24.7 |
| +0.209 – | Off epa last3 | – +0.130 |
| −0.225 – | Def epa last3 | – +0.361 |
| +4.8 6th | Special teams EPA | 24th −0.5 |
BAL offense vs CAR defense
Offense percentiles for BAL against the matching defensive percentiles for CAR. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
BALCAR D
CAR offense vs BAL defense
Offense percentiles for CAR against the matching defensive percentiles for BAL. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
CARBAL D