Week 11 · Sunday, Nov 22 · 8:20 pm ET · Estadio Banorte
TBD referee · 7 rest days (MIN) / 7 (SF)
Model
Projected MIN 21.9 – SF 25.4
margin +3.6 · total 47.3
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| MIN | SF | |
|---|---|---|
| +3.2 7th | Power rating | 4th +5.2 |
| +0.8 12th | Offense rating | 7th +2.3 |
| +2.4 8th | Defense rating | 5th +2.9 |
| +0.071 12th | Offense EPA/play | 7th +0.190 |
| −0.181 8th | Defense EPA/play allowed | 5th −0.226 |
| 38.7% 26th | Offense success rate | 3rd 56.9% |
| 38.2% 6th | Defense success rate allowed | 17th 43.3% |
| +0.233 10th | Pass EPA/dropback | 11th +0.227 |
| −0.059 11th | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 4th −0.270 |
| −0.125 22nd | Rush EPA/carry | 3rd +0.142 |
| −0.438 2nd | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 9th −0.171 |
| 3.2% 29th | Explosive play rate | 19th 7.7% |
| 13.2% 30th | Explosive rate allowed | 12th 6.7% |
| 57.1% 5th | 3rd-down conversion | 4th 58.3% |
| 25.0% 8th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 7th 22.2% |
| 100.0% 1st | Red-zone TD rate | 15th 66.7% |
| 25.0% 3rd | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 4th 33.3% |
| 16.1% 20th | Pressure rate allowed | 3rd 5.6% |
| 32.6% 1st | Pressure rate | 3rd 27.6% |
| 7.7% 12th | Turnover rate | 16th 11.1% |
| 16.7% 10th | Takeaway rate | 5th 20.0% |
| 39.0 3rd | Points per game | 13th 27.0 |
| 22.0 12th | Points allowed per game | 1st 7.0 |
| −8.0% – | Pass rate over expected | – +5.1% |
| 32.7 26th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 25th 32.7 |
| +0.071 – | Off epa last3 | – +0.190 |
| −0.181 – | Def epa last3 | – −0.226 |
| +3.0 14th | Special teams EPA | 25th −0.7 |
MIN offense vs SF defense
Offense percentiles for MIN against the matching defensive percentiles for SF. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
MINSF D
SF offense vs MIN defense
Offense percentiles for SF against the matching defensive percentiles for MIN. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
SFMIN D