Week 11 · Sunday, Nov 22 · 1:00 pm ET · Soldier Field
TBD referee · 7 rest days (NO) / 14 (CHI)
Model
Projected NO 25.7 – CHI 29.5
margin +3.8 · total 55.2
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| NO | CHI | |
|---|---|---|
| +0.6 15th | Power rating | 8th +2.9 |
| +0.2 17th | Offense rating | 2nd +4.5 |
| +0.4 14th | Defense rating | 24th −1.6 |
| +0.019 17th | Offense EPA/play | 2nd +0.361 |
| −0.027 14th | Defense EPA/play allowed | 24th +0.130 |
| 43.8% 15th | Offense success rate | 4th 53.3% |
| 45.5% 20th | Defense success rate allowed | 22nd 47.1% |
| +0.052 17th | Pass EPA/dropback | 4th +0.551 |
| +0.012 14th | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 24th +0.242 |
| −0.075 15th | Rush EPA/carry | 2nd +0.143 |
| −0.072 19th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 14th −0.106 |
| 9.0% 16th | Explosive play rate | 5th 12.0% |
| 10.4% 22nd | Explosive rate allowed | 27th 11.8% |
| 47.1% 10th | 3rd-down conversion | 3rd 71.4% |
| 38.5% 17th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 21st 44.4% |
| 80.0% 10th | Red-zone TD rate | 1st 100.0% |
| 80.0% 20th | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 23rd 100.0% |
| 14.3% 14th | Pressure rate allowed | 5th 7.9% |
| 19.5% 9th | Pressure rate | 23rd 11.6% |
| 21.4% 29th | Turnover rate | 10th 7.1% |
| 6.7% 24th | Takeaway rate | 13th 15.4% |
| 30.0 11th | Points per game | 1st 59.0 |
| 31.0 23rd | Points allowed per game | 29th 37.0 |
| +4.1% – | Pass rate over expected | – −1.7% |
| 21.6 2nd | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 12th 28.6 |
| +0.019 – | Off epa last3 | – +0.361 |
| −0.027 – | Def epa last3 | – +0.130 |
| −2.4 29th | Special teams EPA | 1st +6.4 |
NO offense vs CHI defense
Offense percentiles for NO against the matching defensive percentiles for CHI. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
NOCHI D
CHI offense vs NO defense
Offense percentiles for CHI against the matching defensive percentiles for NO. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
CHINO D