Week 11 · Sunday, Nov 22 · 1:00 pm ET · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
TBD referee · 7 rest days (ARI) / 7 (KC)
Model
Projected ARI 20.8 – KC 24.7
margin +3.9 · total 45.6
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| ARI | KC | |
|---|---|---|
| +3.9 5th | Power rating | 2nd +6.2 |
| +1.7 8th | Offense rating | 11th +1.4 |
| +2.2 9th | Defense rating | 1st +4.8 |
| +0.139 8th | Offense EPA/play | 11th +0.118 |
| −0.167 9th | Defense EPA/play allowed | 1st −0.378 |
| 48.6% 6th | Offense success rate | 22nd 40.9% |
| 40.0% 9th | Defense success rate allowed | 4th 36.0% |
| +0.270 8th | Pass EPA/dropback | 20th −0.014 |
| −0.087 10th | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 2nd −0.442 |
| −0.044 11th | Rush EPA/carry | 1st +0.259 |
| −0.360 4th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 7th −0.228 |
| 5.6% 24th | Explosive play rate | 15th 9.1% |
| 5.5% 8th | Explosive rate allowed | 3rd 2.0% |
| 46.2% 11th | 3rd-down conversion | 7th 56.3% |
| 25.0% 8th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 2nd 16.7% |
| 40.0% 24th | Red-zone TD rate | 19th 60.0% |
| 66.7% 14th | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 9th 50.0% |
| 12.8% 12th | Pressure rate allowed | 16th 15.2% |
| 11.4% 24th | Pressure rate | 8th 21.2% |
| 0.0% 1st | Turnover rate | 14th 8.3% |
| 20.0% 5th | Takeaway rate | 10th 16.7% |
| 26.0 16th | Points per game | 8th 31.0 |
| 14.0 9th | Points allowed per game | 2nd 10.0 |
| −0.5% – | Pass rate over expected | – +0.4% |
| 30.5 17th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 8th 27.6 |
| +0.139 – | Off epa last3 | – +0.118 |
| −0.167 – | Def epa last3 | – −0.378 |
| −3.9 30th | Special teams EPA | 13th +3.3 |
ARI offense vs KC defense
Offense percentiles for ARI against the matching defensive percentiles for KC. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
ARIKC D
KC offense vs ARI defense
Offense percentiles for KC against the matching defensive percentiles for ARI. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
KCARI D