Week 11 · Thursday, Nov 19 · 8:15 pm ET · Reliant Stadium
Indianapolis Colts0-1 · −5.5 power
@
no line · Division game Prime Video
Houston Texans0-1 · −2.6 power
TBD referee · 4 rest days (IND) / 4 (HOU)
Model
Projected IND 24.5 – HOU 28.9
margin +4.4 · total 53.4
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| IND | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| −5.5 30th | Power rating | 23rd −2.6 |
| −2.9 27th | Offense rating | 13th +0.8 |
| −2.6 27th | Defense rating | 29th −3.4 |
| −0.225 27th | Offense EPA/play | 13th +0.071 |
| +0.209 27th | Defense EPA/play allowed | 29th +0.278 |
| 42.6% 20th | Offense success rate | 9th 48.1% |
| 46.9% 21st | Defense success rate allowed | 12th 41.1% |
| −0.410 30th | Pass EPA/dropback | 16th +0.098 |
| +0.316 26th | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 30th +0.556 |
| +0.116 5th | Rush EPA/carry | 9th +0.030 |
| +0.102 27th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 5th −0.263 |
| 13.0% 4th | Explosive play rate | 17th 8.9% |
| 10.9% 24th | Explosive rate allowed | 31st 14.3% |
| 30.0% 22nd | 3rd-down conversion | 13th 43.8% |
| 37.5% 16th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 13th 33.3% |
| 100.0% 1st | Red-zone TD rate | 10th 80.0% |
| 75.0% 18th | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 4th 33.3% |
| 26.5% 29th | Pressure rate allowed | 26th 21.4% |
| 10.3% 25th | Pressure rate | 26th 9.1% |
| 16.7% 21st | Turnover rate | 24th 18.2% |
| 7.7% 20th | Takeaway rate | 25th 0.0% |
| 23.0 18th | Points per game | 8th 31.0 |
| 41.0 31st | Points allowed per game | 28th 36.0 |
| −4.1% – | Pass rate over expected | – −4.8% |
| 35.7 30th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 21st 31.1 |
| −0.225 – | Off epa last3 | – +0.071 |
| +0.209 – | Def epa last3 | – +0.278 |
| +4.4 8th | Special teams EPA | 9th +4.3 |
IND offense vs HOU defense
Offense percentiles for IND against the matching defensive percentiles for HOU. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
INDHOU D
HOU offense vs IND defense
Offense percentiles for HOU against the matching defensive percentiles for IND. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
HOUIND D