Week 3 · Sunday, Sep 27 · 1:00 pm ET · Hard Rock Stadium
TBD referee · 7 rest days (KC) / 7 (MIA)
Model
Projected KC 25.0 – MIA 17.5
margin −7.4 · total 42.5
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| KC | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| +6.2 2nd | Power rating | 24th −2.7 |
| +1.4 11th | Offense rating | 29th −3.1 |
| +4.8 1st | Defense rating | 13th +0.4 |
| +0.118 11th | Offense EPA/play | 29th −0.242 |
| −0.378 1st | Defense EPA/play allowed | 13th −0.029 |
| 40.9% 22nd | Offense success rate | 30th 34.6% |
| 36.0% 4th | Defense success rate allowed | 15th 43.1% |
| −0.014 20th | Pass EPA/dropback | 26th −0.183 |
| −0.442 2nd | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 15th +0.027 |
| +0.259 1st | Rush EPA/carry | 30th −0.399 |
| −0.228 7th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 17th −0.083 |
| 9.1% 15th | Explosive play rate | 10th 10.9% |
| 2.0% 3rd | Explosive rate allowed | 13th 7.7% |
| 56.3% 7th | 3rd-down conversion | 27th 20.0% |
| 16.7% 2nd | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 18th 41.7% |
| 60.0% 19th | Red-zone TD rate | 26th 33.3% |
| 50.0% 9th | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 18th 75.0% |
| 15.2% 16th | Pressure rate allowed | 28th 24.3% |
| 21.2% 8th | Pressure rate | 29th 6.5% |
| 8.3% 14th | Turnover rate | 24th 18.2% |
| 16.7% 10th | Takeaway rate | 7th 18.2% |
| 31.0 8th | Points per game | 25th 13.0 |
| 10.0 2nd | Points allowed per game | 18th 27.0 |
| +0.4% – | Pass rate over expected | – −2.7% |
| 27.6 8th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 29th 34.4 |
| +0.118 – | Off epa last3 | – −0.242 |
| −0.378 – | Def epa last3 | – −0.029 |
| +3.3 13th | Special teams EPA | 27th −1.2 |
KC offense vs MIA defense
Offense percentiles for KC against the matching defensive percentiles for MIA. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
KCMIA D
MIA offense vs KC defense
Offense percentiles for MIA against the matching defensive percentiles for KC. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
MIAKC D