Week 3 · Sunday, Sep 27 · 1:00 pm ET · Highmark Stadium
TBD referee · 7 rest days (LAC) / 10 (BUF)
Model
Projected LAC 22.6 – BUF 30.6
margin +8.0 · total 53.2
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| LAC | BUF | |
|---|---|---|
| −3.9 28th | Power rating | 10th +2.6 |
| −2.2 24th | Offense rating | 4th +3.4 |
| −1.7 25th | Defense rating | 20th −0.8 |
| −0.167 24th | Offense EPA/play | 4th +0.278 |
| +0.139 25th | Defense EPA/play allowed | 20th +0.071 |
| 40.0% 24th | Offense success rate | 21st 41.1% |
| 48.6% 27th | Defense success rate allowed | 24th 48.1% |
| −0.087 23rd | Pass EPA/dropback | 3rd +0.556 |
| +0.270 25th | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 17th +0.098 |
| −0.360 29th | Rush EPA/carry | 28th −0.263 |
| −0.044 22nd | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 24th +0.030 |
| 5.5% 25th | Explosive play rate | 2nd 14.3% |
| 5.6% 9th | Explosive rate allowed | 16th 8.9% |
| 25.0% 23rd | 3rd-down conversion | 18th 33.3% |
| 46.2% 22nd | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 20th 43.8% |
| 66.7% 15th | Red-zone TD rate | 26th 33.3% |
| 40.0% 7th | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 20th 80.0% |
| 11.4% 9th | Pressure rate allowed | 7th 9.1% |
| 12.8% 21st | Pressure rate | 7th 21.4% |
| 20.0% 27th | Turnover rate | 1st 0.0% |
| 0.0% 25th | Takeaway rate | 7th 18.2% |
| 14.0 24th | Points per game | 5th 36.0 |
| 26.0 17th | Points allowed per game | 23rd 31.0 |
| +0.3% – | Pass rate over expected | – +3.7% |
| 29.9 16th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 9th 28.0 |
| −0.167 – | Off epa last3 | – +0.278 |
| +0.139 – | Def epa last3 | – +0.071 |
| −4.3 31st | Special teams EPA | 7th +4.4 |
LAC offense vs BUF defense
Offense percentiles for LAC against the matching defensive percentiles for BUF. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
LACBUF D
BUF offense vs LAC defense
Offense percentiles for BUF against the matching defensive percentiles for LAC. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
BUFLAC D