Week 16 · Friday, Dec 25 · 4:30 pm ET · Empower Field at Mile High
TBD referee · 6 rest days (BUF) / 5 (DEN)
Model
Projected BUF 28.8 – DEN 21.5
margin −7.4 · total 50.3
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| BUF | DEN | |
|---|---|---|
| +2.6 10th | Power rating | 31st −6.2 |
| +3.4 4th | Offense rating | 32nd −4.8 |
| −0.8 20th | Defense rating | 22nd −1.4 |
| +0.278 4th | Offense EPA/play | 32nd −0.378 |
| +0.071 20th | Defense EPA/play allowed | 22nd +0.118 |
| 41.1% 21st | Offense success rate | 29th 36.0% |
| 48.1% 24th | Defense success rate allowed | 11th 40.9% |
| +0.556 3rd | Pass EPA/dropback | 31st −0.442 |
| +0.098 17th | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 13th −0.014 |
| −0.263 28th | Rush EPA/carry | 26th −0.228 |
| +0.030 24th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 32nd +0.259 |
| 14.3% 2nd | Explosive play rate | 30th 2.0% |
| 8.9% 16th | Explosive rate allowed | 18th 9.1% |
| 33.3% 18th | 3rd-down conversion | 30th 16.7% |
| 43.8% 20th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 26th 56.3% |
| 33.3% 26th | Red-zone TD rate | 20th 50.0% |
| 80.0% 20th | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 13th 60.0% |
| 9.1% 7th | Pressure rate allowed | 25th 21.2% |
| 21.4% 7th | Pressure rate | 15th 15.2% |
| 0.0% 1st | Turnover rate | 21st 16.7% |
| 18.2% 7th | Takeaway rate | 19th 8.3% |
| 36.0 5th | Points per game | 28th 10.0 |
| 31.0 23rd | Points allowed per game | 23rd 31.0 |
| +3.7% – | Pass rate over expected | – +1.7% |
| 28.0 9th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 27th 33.5 |
| +0.278 – | Off epa last3 | – −0.378 |
| +0.071 – | Def epa last3 | – +0.118 |
| +4.4 7th | Special teams EPA | 10th +3.6 |
BUF offense vs DEN defense
Offense percentiles for BUF against the matching defensive percentiles for DEN. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
BUFDEN D
DEN offense vs BUF defense
Offense percentiles for DEN against the matching defensive percentiles for BUF. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
DENBUF D