Week 16 · Sunday, Dec 27 · 8:20 pm ET · AT&T Stadium
TBD referee · 7 rest days (JAX) / 7 (DAL)
Model
Projected JAX 32.3 – DAL 26.2
margin −6.2 · total 58.5
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| JAX | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| +6.5 1st | Power rating | 20th −1.2 |
| +3.8 3rd | Offense rating | 5th +3.3 |
| +2.7 7th | Defense rating | 32nd −4.5 |
| +0.310 3rd | Offense EPA/play | 5th +0.271 |
| −0.206 7th | Defense EPA/play allowed | 32nd +0.363 |
| 59.3% 1st | Offense success rate | 8th 48.3% |
| 43.1% 16th | Defense success rate allowed | 31st 59.1% |
| +0.731 1st | Pass EPA/dropback | 5th +0.425 |
| −0.257 5th | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 31st +0.667 |
| −0.053 13th | Rush EPA/carry | 18th −0.100 |
| −0.119 12th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 26th +0.059 |
| 16.7% 1st | Explosive play rate | 32nd 0.0% |
| 7.8% 15th | Explosive rate allowed | 10th 6.1% |
| 55.6% 8th | 3rd-down conversion | 2nd 72.7% |
| 12.5% 1st | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 32nd 90.0% |
| 100.0% 1st | Red-zone TD rate | 1st 100.0% |
| 0.0% 1st | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 23rd 100.0% |
| 12.5% 11th | Pressure rate allowed | 6th 8.3% |
| 30.0% 2nd | Pressure rate | 15th 15.2% |
| 0.0% 1st | Turnover rate | 17th 14.3% |
| 22.2% 3rd | Takeaway rate | 15th 14.3% |
| 34.0 6th | Points per game | 22nd 20.0 |
| 10.0 2nd | Points allowed per game | 21st 28.0 |
| −4.3% – | Pass rate over expected | – +2.3% |
| 29.4 14th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 5th 25.6 |
| +0.310 – | Off epa last3 | – +0.271 |
| −0.206 – | Def epa last3 | – +0.363 |
| +3.0 15th | Special teams EPA | 26th −1.1 |
JAX offense vs DAL defense
Offense percentiles for JAX against the matching defensive percentiles for DAL. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
JAXDAL D
DAL offense vs JAX defense
Offense percentiles for DAL against the matching defensive percentiles for JAX. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
DALJAX D