Week 16 · Sunday, Dec 27 · 1:00 pm ET · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
TBD referee · 7 rest days (TB) / 7 (ATL)
Model
Projected TB 19.6 – ATL 20.8
margin +1.2 · total 40.5
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| TB | ATL | |
|---|---|---|
| −1.0 19th | Power rating | 21st −1.3 |
| −1.1 21st | Offense rating | 31st −4.6 |
| +0.0 15th | Defense rating | 3rd +3.2 |
| −0.081 21st | Offense EPA/play | 31st −0.358 |
| +0.001 15th | Defense EPA/play allowed | 3rd −0.252 |
| 51.8% 5th | Offense success rate | 28th 36.7% |
| 47.6% 23rd | Defense success rate allowed | 1st 33.9% |
| −0.168 25th | Pass EPA/dropback | 32nd −0.638 |
| −0.030 12th | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 6th −0.251 |
| +0.118 4th | Rush EPA/carry | 20th −0.113 |
| +0.050 25th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 6th −0.252 |
| 5.4% 26th | Explosive play rate | 13th 10.0% |
| 11.1% 26th | Explosive rate allowed | 11th 6.2% |
| 50.0% 9th | 3rd-down conversion | 30th 16.7% |
| 57.1% 27th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 8th 25.0% |
| 50.0% 20th | Red-zone TD rate | – – |
| 40.0% 7th | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 9th 50.0% |
| 16.7% 22nd | Pressure rate allowed | 23rd 19.2% |
| 16.2% 12th | Pressure rate | 20th 14.0% |
| 40.0% 32nd | Turnover rate | 19th 15.4% |
| 10.0% 18th | Takeaway rate | 22nd 7.1% |
| 27.0 13th | Points per game | 25th 13.0 |
| 33.0 26th | Points allowed per game | 10th 20.0 |
| +2.7% – | Pass rate over expected | – −17.1% |
| 29.8 15th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 18th 30.7 |
| −0.081 – | Off epa last3 | – −0.358 |
| +0.001 – | Def epa last3 | – −0.252 |
| +5.2 4th | Special teams EPA | 28th −2.3 |
TB offense vs ATL defense
Offense percentiles for TB against the matching defensive percentiles for ATL. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
TBATL D
ATL offense vs TB defense
Offense percentiles for ATL against the matching defensive percentiles for TB. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
ATLTB D