Week 5 · Sunday, Oct 11 · 4:05 pm ET · SoFi Stadium (dome)
TBD referee · 7 rest days (DEN) / 7 (LAC)
Model
Projected DEN 20.8 – LAC 24.7
margin +3.9 · total 45.6
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| DEN | LAC | |
|---|---|---|
| −6.2 31st | Power rating | 28th −3.9 |
| −4.8 32nd | Offense rating | 24th −2.2 |
| −1.4 22nd | Defense rating | 25th −1.7 |
| −0.378 32nd | Offense EPA/play | 24th −0.167 |
| +0.118 22nd | Defense EPA/play allowed | 25th +0.139 |
| 36.0% 29th | Offense success rate | 24th 40.0% |
| 40.9% 11th | Defense success rate allowed | 27th 48.6% |
| −0.442 31st | Pass EPA/dropback | 23rd −0.087 |
| −0.014 13th | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 25th +0.270 |
| −0.228 26th | Rush EPA/carry | 29th −0.360 |
| +0.259 32nd | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 22nd −0.044 |
| 2.0% 30th | Explosive play rate | 25th 5.5% |
| 9.1% 18th | Explosive rate allowed | 9th 5.6% |
| 16.7% 30th | 3rd-down conversion | 23rd 25.0% |
| 56.3% 26th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 22nd 46.2% |
| 50.0% 20th | Red-zone TD rate | 15th 66.7% |
| 60.0% 13th | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 7th 40.0% |
| 21.2% 25th | Pressure rate allowed | 9th 11.4% |
| 15.2% 15th | Pressure rate | 21st 12.8% |
| 16.7% 21st | Turnover rate | 27th 20.0% |
| 8.3% 19th | Takeaway rate | 25th 0.0% |
| 10.0 28th | Points per game | 24th 14.0 |
| 31.0 23rd | Points allowed per game | 17th 26.0 |
| +1.7% – | Pass rate over expected | – +0.3% |
| 33.5 27th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 16th 29.9 |
| −0.378 – | Off epa last3 | – −0.167 |
| +0.118 – | Def epa last3 | – +0.139 |
| +3.6 10th | Special teams EPA | 31st −4.3 |
DEN offense vs LAC defense
Offense percentiles for DEN against the matching defensive percentiles for LAC. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
DENLAC D
LAC offense vs DEN defense
Offense percentiles for LAC against the matching defensive percentiles for DEN. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
LACDEN D