Week 5 · Sunday, Oct 11 · 1:00 pm ET · Hard Rock Stadium
TBD referee · 7 rest days (CIN) / 7 (MIA)
Model
Projected CIN 23.5 – MIA 21.3
margin −2.2 · total 44.8
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| CIN | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| +1.0 14th | Power rating | 24th −2.7 |
| −0.0 18th | Offense rating | 29th −3.1 |
| +1.1 12th | Defense rating | 13th +0.4 |
| +0.001 18th | Offense EPA/play | 29th −0.242 |
| −0.081 12th | Defense EPA/play allowed | 13th −0.029 |
| 47.6% 10th | Offense success rate | 30th 34.6% |
| 51.8% 28th | Defense success rate allowed | 15th 43.1% |
| −0.030 21st | Pass EPA/dropback | 26th −0.183 |
| −0.168 8th | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 15th +0.027 |
| +0.050 8th | Rush EPA/carry | 30th −0.399 |
| +0.118 29th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 17th −0.083 |
| 11.1% 7th | Explosive play rate | 10th 10.9% |
| 5.4% 7th | Explosive rate allowed | 13th 7.7% |
| 57.1% 5th | 3rd-down conversion | 27th 20.0% |
| 50.0% 24th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 18th 41.7% |
| 40.0% 24th | Red-zone TD rate | 26th 33.3% |
| 50.0% 9th | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 18th 75.0% |
| 16.2% 21st | Pressure rate allowed | 28th 24.3% |
| 16.7% 11th | Pressure rate | 29th 6.5% |
| 10.0% 15th | Turnover rate | 24th 18.2% |
| 40.0% 1st | Takeaway rate | 7th 18.2% |
| 33.0 7th | Points per game | 25th 13.0 |
| 27.0 18th | Points allowed per game | 18th 27.0 |
| +5.7% – | Pass rate over expected | – −2.7% |
| 23.1 3rd | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 29th 34.4 |
| +0.001 – | Off epa last3 | – −0.242 |
| −0.081 – | Def epa last3 | – −0.029 |
| +5.6 3rd | Special teams EPA | 27th −1.2 |
CIN offense vs MIA defense
Offense percentiles for CIN against the matching defensive percentiles for MIA. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
CINMIA D
MIA offense vs CIN defense
Offense percentiles for MIA against the matching defensive percentiles for CIN. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
MIACIN D