Week 5 · Sunday, Oct 11 · 4:25 pm ET · State Farm Stadium
TBD referee · 7 rest days (DET) / 7 (ARI)
Model
Projected DET 21.4 – ARI 27.3
margin +5.9 · total 48.7
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| DET | ARI | |
|---|---|---|
| −0.6 18th | Power rating | 5th +3.9 |
| −0.4 19th | Offense rating | 8th +1.7 |
| −0.2 16th | Defense rating | 9th +2.2 |
| −0.027 19th | Offense EPA/play | 8th +0.139 |
| +0.019 16th | Defense EPA/play allowed | 9th −0.167 |
| 45.5% 13th | Offense success rate | 6th 48.6% |
| 43.8% 18th | Defense success rate allowed | 9th 40.0% |
| +0.012 19th | Pass EPA/dropback | 8th +0.270 |
| +0.052 16th | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 10th −0.087 |
| −0.072 14th | Rush EPA/carry | 11th −0.044 |
| −0.075 18th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 4th −0.360 |
| 10.4% 11th | Explosive play rate | 24th 5.6% |
| 9.0% 17th | Explosive rate allowed | 8th 5.5% |
| 38.5% 16th | 3rd-down conversion | 11th 46.2% |
| 47.1% 23rd | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 8th 25.0% |
| 80.0% 10th | Red-zone TD rate | 24th 40.0% |
| 80.0% 20th | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 14th 66.7% |
| 19.5% 24th | Pressure rate allowed | 12th 12.8% |
| 14.3% 18th | Pressure rate | 24th 11.4% |
| 6.7% 9th | Turnover rate | 1st 0.0% |
| 21.4% 4th | Takeaway rate | 5th 20.0% |
| 31.0 8th | Points per game | 16th 26.0 |
| 30.0 22nd | Points allowed per game | 9th 14.0 |
| −2.4% – | Pass rate over expected | – −0.5% |
| 31.1 20th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 17th 30.5 |
| −0.027 – | Off epa last3 | – +0.139 |
| +0.019 – | Def epa last3 | – −0.167 |
| +0.1 23rd | Special teams EPA | 30th −3.9 |
DET offense vs ARI defense
Offense percentiles for DET against the matching defensive percentiles for ARI. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
DETARI D
ARI offense vs DET defense
Offense percentiles for ARI against the matching defensive percentiles for DET. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
ARIDET D