Week 18 · Sunday, Jan 10 · 1:00 pm ET · U.S. Bank Stadium (dome)
TBD referee · 7 rest days (CHI) / 7 (MIN)
Model
Projected CHI 26.1 – MIN 27.9
margin +1.8 · total 54.0
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| CHI | MIN | |
|---|---|---|
| +2.9 8th | Power rating | 7th +3.2 |
| +4.5 2nd | Offense rating | 12th +0.8 |
| −1.6 24th | Defense rating | 8th +2.4 |
| +0.361 2nd | Offense EPA/play | 12th +0.071 |
| +0.130 24th | Defense EPA/play allowed | 8th −0.181 |
| 53.3% 4th | Offense success rate | 26th 38.7% |
| 47.1% 22nd | Defense success rate allowed | 6th 38.2% |
| +0.551 4th | Pass EPA/dropback | 10th +0.233 |
| +0.242 24th | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 11th −0.059 |
| +0.143 2nd | Rush EPA/carry | 22nd −0.125 |
| −0.106 14th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 2nd −0.438 |
| 12.0% 5th | Explosive play rate | 29th 3.2% |
| 11.8% 27th | Explosive rate allowed | 30th 13.2% |
| 71.4% 3rd | 3rd-down conversion | 5th 57.1% |
| 44.4% 21st | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 8th 25.0% |
| 100.0% 1st | Red-zone TD rate | 1st 100.0% |
| 100.0% 23rd | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 3rd 25.0% |
| 7.9% 5th | Pressure rate allowed | 20th 16.1% |
| 11.6% 23rd | Pressure rate | 1st 32.6% |
| 7.1% 10th | Turnover rate | 12th 7.7% |
| 15.4% 13th | Takeaway rate | 10th 16.7% |
| 59.0 1st | Points per game | 3rd 39.0 |
| 37.0 29th | Points allowed per game | 12th 22.0 |
| −1.7% – | Pass rate over expected | – −8.0% |
| 28.6 12th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 26th 32.7 |
| +0.361 – | Off epa last3 | – +0.071 |
| +0.130 – | Def epa last3 | – −0.181 |
| +6.4 1st | Special teams EPA | 14th +3.0 |
CHI offense vs MIN defense
Offense percentiles for CHI against the matching defensive percentiles for MIN. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
CHIMIN D
MIN offense vs CHI defense
Offense percentiles for MIN against the matching defensive percentiles for CHI. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
MINCHI D