Week 18 · Sunday, Jan 10 · 1:00 pm ET · Reliant Stadium
TBD referee · 7 rest days (TEN) / 6 (HOU)
Model
Projected TEN 25.6 – HOU 27.8
margin +2.3 · total 53.4
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| TEN | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| −3.4 27th | Power rating | 23rd −2.6 |
| −1.8 23rd | Offense rating | 13th +0.8 |
| −1.5 23rd | Defense rating | 29th −3.4 |
| −0.141 23rd | Offense EPA/play | 13th +0.071 |
| +0.127 23rd | Defense EPA/play allowed | 29th +0.278 |
| 44.0% 14th | Offense success rate | 9th 48.1% |
| 48.4% 26th | Defense success rate allowed | 12th 41.1% |
| −0.152 24th | Pass EPA/dropback | 16th +0.098 |
| +0.338 27th | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 30th +0.556 |
| −0.096 17th | Rush EPA/carry | 9th +0.030 |
| −0.038 23rd | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 5th −0.263 |
| 4.0% 28th | Explosive play rate | 17th 8.9% |
| 10.9% 24th | Explosive rate allowed | 31st 14.3% |
| 33.3% 18th | 3rd-down conversion | 13th 43.8% |
| 18.2% 4th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 13th 33.3% |
| 100.0% 1st | Red-zone TD rate | 10th 80.0% |
| 66.7% 14th | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 4th 33.3% |
| 15.4% 19th | Pressure rate allowed | 26th 21.4% |
| 3.9% 32nd | Pressure rate | 26th 9.1% |
| 0.0% 1st | Turnover rate | 24th 18.2% |
| 0.0% 25th | Takeaway rate | 25th 0.0% |
| 10.0 28th | Points per game | 8th 31.0 |
| 23.0 14th | Points allowed per game | 28th 36.0 |
| +5.8% – | Pass rate over expected | – −4.8% |
| 27.3 7th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 21st 31.1 |
| −0.141 – | Off epa last3 | – +0.071 |
| +0.127 – | Def epa last3 | – +0.278 |
| −5.1 32nd | Special teams EPA | 9th +4.3 |
TEN offense vs HOU defense
Offense percentiles for TEN against the matching defensive percentiles for HOU. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
TENHOU D
HOU offense vs TEN defense
Offense percentiles for HOU against the matching defensive percentiles for TEN. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
HOUTEN D