Week 18 · Sunday, Jan 10 · 1:00 pm ET · Highmark Stadium
TBD referee · 7 rest days (NYJ) / 7 (BUF)
Model
Projected NYJ 26.3 – BUF 27.1
margin +0.7 · total 53.4
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| NYJ | BUF | |
|---|---|---|
| +3.4 6th | Power rating | 10th +2.6 |
| +1.5 10th | Offense rating | 4th +3.4 |
| +1.8 10th | Defense rating | 20th −0.8 |
| +0.127 10th | Offense EPA/play | 4th +0.278 |
| −0.141 10th | Defense EPA/play allowed | 20th +0.071 |
| 48.4% 7th | Offense success rate | 21st 41.1% |
| 44.0% 19th | Defense success rate allowed | 24th 48.1% |
| +0.338 6th | Pass EPA/dropback | 3rd +0.556 |
| −0.152 9th | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 17th +0.098 |
| −0.038 10th | Rush EPA/carry | 28th −0.263 |
| −0.096 16th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 24th +0.030 |
| 10.9% 8th | Explosive play rate | 2nd 14.3% |
| 4.0% 5th | Explosive rate allowed | 16th 8.9% |
| 18.2% 28th | 3rd-down conversion | 18th 33.3% |
| 33.3% 13th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 20th 43.8% |
| 66.7% 15th | Red-zone TD rate | 26th 33.3% |
| 100.0% 23rd | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 20th 80.0% |
| 3.9% 1st | Pressure rate allowed | 7th 9.1% |
| 15.4% 14th | Pressure rate | 7th 21.4% |
| 0.0% 1st | Turnover rate | 1st 0.0% |
| 0.0% 25th | Takeaway rate | 7th 18.2% |
| 23.0 18th | Points per game | 5th 36.0 |
| 10.0 2nd | Points allowed per game | 23rd 31.0 |
| −8.9% – | Pass rate over expected | – +3.7% |
| 34.3 28th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 9th 28.0 |
| +0.127 – | Off epa last3 | – +0.278 |
| −0.141 – | Def epa last3 | – +0.071 |
| +3.5 11th | Special teams EPA | 7th +4.4 |
NYJ offense vs BUF defense
Offense percentiles for NYJ against the matching defensive percentiles for BUF. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
NYJBUF D
BUF offense vs NYJ defense
Offense percentiles for BUF against the matching defensive percentiles for NYJ. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
BUFNYJ D