Week 18 · Sunday, Jan 10 · 1:00 pm ET · Empower Field at Mile High
TBD referee · 7 rest days (LAC) / 7 (DEN)
Model
Projected LAC 23.2 – DEN 22.3
margin −0.9 · total 45.6
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| LAC | DEN | |
|---|---|---|
| −3.9 28th | Power rating | 31st −6.2 |
| −2.2 24th | Offense rating | 32nd −4.8 |
| −1.7 25th | Defense rating | 22nd −1.4 |
| −0.167 24th | Offense EPA/play | 32nd −0.378 |
| +0.139 25th | Defense EPA/play allowed | 22nd +0.118 |
| 40.0% 24th | Offense success rate | 29th 36.0% |
| 48.6% 27th | Defense success rate allowed | 11th 40.9% |
| −0.087 23rd | Pass EPA/dropback | 31st −0.442 |
| +0.270 25th | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 13th −0.014 |
| −0.360 29th | Rush EPA/carry | 26th −0.228 |
| −0.044 22nd | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 32nd +0.259 |
| 5.5% 25th | Explosive play rate | 30th 2.0% |
| 5.6% 9th | Explosive rate allowed | 18th 9.1% |
| 25.0% 23rd | 3rd-down conversion | 30th 16.7% |
| 46.2% 22nd | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 26th 56.3% |
| 66.7% 15th | Red-zone TD rate | 20th 50.0% |
| 40.0% 7th | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 13th 60.0% |
| 11.4% 9th | Pressure rate allowed | 25th 21.2% |
| 12.8% 21st | Pressure rate | 15th 15.2% |
| 20.0% 27th | Turnover rate | 21st 16.7% |
| 0.0% 25th | Takeaway rate | 19th 8.3% |
| 14.0 24th | Points per game | 28th 10.0 |
| 26.0 17th | Points allowed per game | 23rd 31.0 |
| +0.3% – | Pass rate over expected | – +1.7% |
| 29.9 16th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 27th 33.5 |
| −0.167 – | Off epa last3 | – −0.378 |
| +0.139 – | Def epa last3 | – +0.118 |
| −4.3 31st | Special teams EPA | 10th +3.6 |
LAC offense vs DEN defense
Offense percentiles for LAC against the matching defensive percentiles for DEN. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
LACDEN D
DEN offense vs LAC defense
Offense percentiles for DEN against the matching defensive percentiles for LAC. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
DENLAC D