Week 17 · Sunday, Jan 3 · 1:00 pm ET · Raymond James Stadium
TBD referee · 9 rest days (LA) / 7 (TB)
Model
Projected LA 21.0 – TB 26.7
margin +5.7 · total 47.7
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| LA | TB | |
|---|---|---|
| −5.2 29th | Power rating | 19th −1.0 |
| −2.9 28th | Offense rating | 21st −1.1 |
| −2.3 26th | Defense rating | 15th +0.0 |
| −0.226 28th | Offense EPA/play | 21st −0.081 |
| +0.190 26th | Defense EPA/play allowed | 15th +0.001 |
| 43.3% 16th | Offense success rate | 5th 51.8% |
| 56.9% 30th | Defense success rate allowed | 23rd 47.6% |
| −0.270 29th | Pass EPA/dropback | 25th −0.168 |
| +0.227 22nd | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 12th −0.030 |
| −0.171 24th | Rush EPA/carry | 4th +0.118 |
| +0.142 30th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 25th +0.050 |
| 6.7% 21st | Explosive play rate | 26th 5.4% |
| 7.7% 13th | Explosive rate allowed | 26th 11.1% |
| 22.2% 26th | 3rd-down conversion | 9th 50.0% |
| 58.3% 29th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 27th 57.1% |
| 33.3% 26th | Red-zone TD rate | 20th 50.0% |
| 66.7% 14th | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 7th 40.0% |
| 27.6% 30th | Pressure rate allowed | 22nd 16.7% |
| 5.6% 30th | Pressure rate | 12th 16.2% |
| 20.0% 27th | Turnover rate | 32nd 40.0% |
| 11.1% 17th | Takeaway rate | 18th 10.0% |
| 7.0 32nd | Points per game | 13th 27.0 |
| 27.0 18th | Points allowed per game | 26th 33.0 |
| −14.8% – | Pass rate over expected | – +2.7% |
| 31.8 23rd | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 15th 29.8 |
| −0.226 – | Off epa last3 | – −0.081 |
| +0.190 – | Def epa last3 | – +0.001 |
| +0.1 22nd | Special teams EPA | 4th +5.2 |
LA offense vs TB defense
Offense percentiles for LA against the matching defensive percentiles for TB. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
LATB D
TB offense vs LA defense
Offense percentiles for TB against the matching defensive percentiles for LA. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
TBLA D