Week 14 · Sunday, Dec 13 · 1:00 pm ET · M&T Bank Stadium
TBD referee · 7 rest days (TB) / 14 (BAL)
Model
Projected TB 20.0 – BAL 28.0
margin +8.0 · total 48.0
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| TB | BAL | |
|---|---|---|
| −1.0 19th | Power rating | 3rd +5.5 |
| −1.1 21st | Offense rating | 6th +2.6 |
| +0.0 15th | Defense rating | 6th +2.9 |
| −0.081 21st | Offense EPA/play | 6th +0.209 |
| +0.001 15th | Defense EPA/play allowed | 6th −0.225 |
| 51.8% 5th | Offense success rate | 12th 46.9% |
| 47.6% 23rd | Defense success rate allowed | 13th 42.6% |
| −0.168 25th | Pass EPA/dropback | 7th +0.316 |
| −0.030 12th | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 3rd −0.410 |
| +0.118 4th | Rush EPA/carry | 6th +0.102 |
| +0.050 25th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 28th +0.116 |
| 5.4% 26th | Explosive play rate | 8th 10.9% |
| 11.1% 26th | Explosive rate allowed | 29th 13.0% |
| 50.0% 9th | 3rd-down conversion | 17th 37.5% |
| 57.1% 27th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 11th 30.0% |
| 50.0% 20th | Red-zone TD rate | 13th 75.0% |
| 40.0% 7th | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 23rd 100.0% |
| 16.7% 22nd | Pressure rate allowed | 8th 10.3% |
| 16.2% 12th | Pressure rate | 4th 26.5% |
| 40.0% 32nd | Turnover rate | 12th 7.7% |
| 10.0% 18th | Takeaway rate | 10th 16.7% |
| 27.0 13th | Points per game | 2nd 41.0 |
| 33.0 26th | Points allowed per game | 14th 23.0 |
| +2.7% – | Pass rate over expected | – −5.8% |
| 29.8 15th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 19th 30.8 |
| −0.081 – | Off epa last3 | – +0.209 |
| +0.001 – | Def epa last3 | – −0.225 |
| +5.2 4th | Special teams EPA | 6th +4.8 |
TB offense vs BAL defense
Offense percentiles for TB against the matching defensive percentiles for BAL. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
TBBAL D
BAL offense vs TB defense
Offense percentiles for BAL against the matching defensive percentiles for TB. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
BALTB D