Week 14 · Thursday, Dec 10 · 8:15 pm ET · Gillette Stadium
TBD referee · 4 rest days (MIN) / 4 (NE)
Model
Projected MIN 25.1 – NE 21.9
margin −3.2 · total 47.0
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| MIN | NE | |
|---|---|---|
| +3.2 7th | Power rating | 22nd −1.5 |
| +0.8 12th | Offense rating | 22nd −1.2 |
| +2.4 8th | Defense rating | 18th −0.3 |
| +0.071 12th | Offense EPA/play | 22nd −0.092 |
| −0.181 8th | Defense EPA/play allowed | 18th +0.029 |
| 38.7% 26th | Offense success rate | 23rd 40.9% |
| 38.2% 6th | Defense success rate allowed | 8th 38.8% |
| +0.233 10th | Pass EPA/dropback | 15th +0.127 |
| −0.059 11th | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 21st +0.196 |
| −0.125 22nd | Rush EPA/carry | 32nd −0.451 |
| −0.438 2nd | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 8th −0.195 |
| 3.2% 29th | Explosive play rate | 31st 1.4% |
| 13.2% 30th | Explosive rate allowed | 21st 10.2% |
| 57.1% 5th | 3rd-down conversion | 21st 31.3% |
| 25.0% 8th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 4th 18.2% |
| 100.0% 1st | Red-zone TD rate | 20th 50.0% |
| 25.0% 3rd | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 1st 0.0% |
| 16.1% 20th | Pressure rate allowed | 14th 14.3% |
| 32.6% 1st | Pressure rate | 6th 22.2% |
| 7.7% 12th | Turnover rate | 31st 33.3% |
| 16.7% 10th | Takeaway rate | 25th 0.0% |
| 39.0 3rd | Points per game | 28th 10.0 |
| 22.0 12th | Points allowed per game | 6th 13.0 |
| −8.0% – | Pass rate over expected | – −3.5% |
| 32.7 26th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 24th 31.9 |
| +0.071 – | Off epa last3 | – −0.092 |
| −0.181 – | Def epa last3 | – +0.029 |
| +3.0 14th | Special teams EPA | 18th +1.0 |
MIN offense vs NE defense
Offense percentiles for MIN against the matching defensive percentiles for NE. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
MINNE D
NE offense vs MIN defense
Offense percentiles for NE against the matching defensive percentiles for MIN. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
NEMIN D