Week 13 · Sunday, Dec 6 · 4:25 pm ET · Gillette Stadium
TBD referee · 10 rest days (BUF) / 7 (NE)
Model
Projected BUF 27.7 – NE 25.1
margin −2.6 · total 52.8
Market
No market line yet.
Edge
Model minus market. Small numbers are noise; a few points is a real disagreement.
Spread edge
–
Total edge
–
Side by side
Season to date with league ranks.
| BUF | NE | |
|---|---|---|
| +2.6 10th | Power rating | 22nd −1.5 |
| +3.4 4th | Offense rating | 22nd −1.2 |
| −0.8 20th | Defense rating | 18th −0.3 |
| +0.278 4th | Offense EPA/play | 22nd −0.092 |
| +0.071 20th | Defense EPA/play allowed | 18th +0.029 |
| 41.1% 21st | Offense success rate | 23rd 40.9% |
| 48.1% 24th | Defense success rate allowed | 8th 38.8% |
| +0.556 3rd | Pass EPA/dropback | 15th +0.127 |
| +0.098 17th | Pass EPA/dropback allowed | 21st +0.196 |
| −0.263 28th | Rush EPA/carry | 32nd −0.451 |
| +0.030 24th | Rush EPA/carry allowed | 8th −0.195 |
| 14.3% 2nd | Explosive play rate | 31st 1.4% |
| 8.9% 16th | Explosive rate allowed | 21st 10.2% |
| 33.3% 18th | 3rd-down conversion | 21st 31.3% |
| 43.8% 20th | 3rd-down conversion allowed | 4th 18.2% |
| 33.3% 26th | Red-zone TD rate | 20th 50.0% |
| 80.0% 20th | Red-zone TD rate allowed | 1st 0.0% |
| 9.1% 7th | Pressure rate allowed | 14th 14.3% |
| 21.4% 7th | Pressure rate | 6th 22.2% |
| 0.0% 1st | Turnover rate | 31st 33.3% |
| 18.2% 7th | Takeaway rate | 25th 0.0% |
| 36.0 5th | Points per game | 28th 10.0 |
| 31.0 23rd | Points allowed per game | 6th 13.0 |
| +3.7% – | Pass rate over expected | – −3.5% |
| 28.0 9th | Neutral pace (sec/play) | 24th 31.9 |
| +0.278 – | Off epa last3 | – −0.092 |
| +0.071 – | Def epa last3 | – +0.029 |
| +4.4 7th | Special teams EPA | 18th +1.0 |
BUF offense vs NE defense
Offense percentiles for BUF against the matching defensive percentiles for NE. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
BUFNE D
NE offense vs BUF defense
Offense percentiles for NE against the matching defensive percentiles for BUF. Where the offense polygon reaches beyond the defense, the attack has the edge.
NEBUF D